Montpellier v RED Star FC 93 prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MontpellierDrawRED Star FC 93

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Montpellier 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Montpellier are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Montpellier 46%, draw 28%, RED Star FC 93 26%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Montpellier v RED Star FC 93Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Montpellier win46%

Draw28%

RED Star FC 93 win26%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStade de la Mosson

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Montpellier

RED Star FC 93

7Days since last match9

Last match: 19 Oct · the French Ligue 2

Last match: 17 Oct · the French Ligue 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Montpellier	9	+6	18
6	RED Star FC 93	9	+2	17

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Official | PSG, Chelsea and Arsenal target Laciné Megnan-Pavé extends Montpellier contractGet French Football News · 22 Oct 17:12 · Paris Saint Germain, Chelsea, Montpellier

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · montpellier winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

46% The market39%

Us46%

~~Market~~39%

We make Montpellier a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Montpellier v RED Star FC 93~~1.33 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 17~~3 v 6

~~The market · Montpellier win~~39% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Montpellier win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Montpellier win	46%	39%	+7
Draw	28%	28%	0
RED Star FC 93 win	26%	33%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	39%	51%	−12
Both teams to score	44%	57%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	66%	75%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	19%	30%	−11
Montpellier or draw	74%	67%	+7
Montpellier clean sheet	39%	–	–
RED Star FC 93 clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 10.7 9.7 4.6 1 13.7 12.9 6.0 2 9.1 8.4 3.9 3 4.1 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Montpellier down, RED Star FC 93 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,850 Ligue 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Montpellier at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). RED Star FC 93 away: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Montpellier, 0.93 for RED Star FC 93. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~RED 1–1 MON · MON 1–1 RED

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 28 Aug

MONTPELLIER

DLWDWW0–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0

RED STAR FC 93

LWWWWL1–4 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	9	+14	22
2	Nancy	10	+4	19
3	Montpellier	9	+6	18
4	Reims	9	+8	17
5	PAU	10	+3	17
6	RED Star FC 93	9	+2	17
7	Annecy	10	+2	16
8	Metz	10	+2	14
9	Dijon	10	−1	12
10	Dunkerque	10	−2	12
11	Guingamp	10	−2	11
12	Sochaux	10	−4	11
13	Rodez	10	−6	10
14	Boulogne	9	0	9
15	Nantes	9	−5	8
16	Grenoble	10	−8	8
17	Clermont Foot	10	−5	7
18	Laval	10	−8	6