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Montpellier v Grenoble

Montpellier

2–0Full time

Grenoble

Ligue 2 · FRI 9 OCT · Stade de la Mosson

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Montpellier 2–0 Grenoble MONTPELLIER WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Montpellier win~~46%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.438

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.243

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Montpellier win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Montpellier 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–30–24
1′KICK-OFF Montpellier v Grenoble
3′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Yohann Magnin · Grenoble
33′We said Montpellier at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Montpellier 1–0 Grenoble
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Montpellier win: 46% at kick-off, 78% now
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Montpellier 0–0 Grenoble · Nicolas Pays
34′Montpellier ahead on 34′ through Nicolas Pays. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Montpellier 1–0 Grenoble · Nicolas Pays
35′Montpellier ahead on 33′ through Nicolas Pays. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
42′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Julien Laporte · Montpellier
43′We said Montpellier at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
45′SECOND HALF Montpellier 1–0 Grenoble
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Grenoble · On: farouq limouri · Off: Clement Vidal Corrected
64′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Nordan Mukiele · Montpellier
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Montpellier · On: Daryll Benlahlou · Off: Noah Vidal Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Montpellier · On: Yaël Mouanga Boudzoumou · Off: Daylam Meddah Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Grenoble · On: Lucas Bernadou · Off: Yohann Magnin Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Grenoble · On: Lucas Bernadou · Off: Yohann Magnin Corrected
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Alpha Sissoko · Montpellier
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Montpellier · On: Hichem Abderrebi · Off: Théo Chennahi Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Montpellier · On: Naoufel El Hannach · Off: Alpha Sissoko Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Grenoble · On: Kyliann Fofana · Off: Samba Lele Diba Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Grenoble · On: Moussa Djitté · Off: Ugo Bonnet Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Montpellier · On: Yassine Benhattab · Off: Nordan Mukiele Corrected
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' farouq limouri · Grenoble
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Mael Corboz · Grenoble
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Baptiste Mouazan · Grenoble
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Montpellier 2–0 Grenoble · Nicolas Pays
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Montpellier 2–0 Grenoble · Mamadou Camara
FTFULL TIME Montpellier 2–0 Grenoble
FTMontpellier 2–0 Grenoble · Montpellier win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Montpellier win46%

Draw30%

Grenoble win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Stade de la Mosson

Referee · Retail Pierre

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Montpellier

4-2-3-1

31 S. Ngapandouetnbu

58 A. Sissoko

15 J. Laporte

27 D. Meddah

17 T. Sainte-Luce

40 N. Vidal-Cartoux

5 F. Tardieu

18 N. Pays

44 T. Chennahi

19 N. Mukiele

11 M. Camara

Coach · Zoumana Camara

Substitutes

1 · M. Michel

6 · Y. Mouanga

3 · N. El Hannach

90 · G. Ayem

77 · Everson Jr

32 · H. Abderrebi

10 · Y. Benhattab

23 · D. Benlahlou

Grenoble

4-1-4-1

1 A. Olliero

97 Y. Macon

43 A. Pelon

5 C. Vidal

27 M. Xantippe

6 Y. Magnin

19 N. Zahui

30 S. Diba

14 M. Corboz

10 B. Mouazan

12 U. Bonnet

Coach · Olivier Frapolli

Substitutes

16 · B. Allain

3 · F. Limouri

21 · C. Kouassi

8 · L. Bernadou

2 · M. Djitte

23 · D. Hoogewerf

92 · J. Akpa Akpro

47 · K. Fofana

17 · L. Cerri

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Montpellier

4-2-3-1

31 S. Ngapandouetnbu

58 A. Sissoko

15 J. Laporte

27 D. Meddah

17 T. Sainte-Luce

40 N. Vidal-Cartoux

5 F. Tardieu

18 N. Pays

44 T. Chennahi

19 N. Mukiele

11 M. Camara

Coach · Zoumana Camara

Substitutes

1 · M. Michel

6 · Y. Mouanga

3 · N. El Hannach

90 · G. Ayem

77 · Everson Jr

32 · H. Abderrebi

10 · Y. Benhattab

23 · D. Benlahlou

Grenoble

4-1-4-1

1 A. Olliero

97 Y. Macon

43 A. Pelon

5 C. Vidal

27 M. Xantippe

6 Y. Magnin

19 N. Zahui

30 S. Diba

14 M. Corboz

10 B. Mouazan

12 U. Bonnet

Coach · Olivier Frapolli

Substitutes

16 · B. Allain

3 · F. Limouri

21 · C. Kouassi

8 · L. Bernadou

2 · M. Djitte

23 · D. Hoogewerf

92 · J. Akpa Akpro

47 · K. Fofana

17 · L. Cerri

Our number · montpellier winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

46% The market60%

Us46%

~~Market~~60%

We make Montpellier a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · montpellier win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Montpellier win	46%	60%	−14
Draw	30%	24%	+6
Grenoble win	24%	16%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	34%	49%	−15
Both teams to score	39%	47%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	61%	72%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	15%	28%	−13
Montpellier or draw	76%	84%	−8
Montpellier clean sheet	45%	–	–
Grenoble clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 13.2 10.3 4.3 1 15.8 12.9 5.2 2 9.8 7.9 3.2 3 4.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Montpellier down, Grenoble across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,827 Ligue 2 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Montpellier at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Grenoble away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Montpellier, 0.81 for Grenoble. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MON 2–1 GRE · GRE 1–1 MON

Form · last six in Ligue 2

MONTPELLIER

WWDLWD1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

GRENOBLE

DLWLWD0–0 · 0–4 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	7	+11	16
2	RED Star FC 93	7	+2	14
3	Reims	7	+6	13
4	Montpellier	7	+1	12
5	Metz	7	+3	10
6	Nancy	7	+1	10
7	Annecy	7	0	10
8	Sochaux	7	−1	10
9	Dijon	7	0	9
10	PAU	7	0	8
11	Dunkerque	7	−2	8
12	Guingamp	7	−2	8
13	Grenoble	7	−3	8
14	Rodez	7	−2	7
15	Nantes	7	−4	7
16	Clermont Foot	7	−2	6
17	Boulogne	7	−2	5
18	Laval	7	−6	5