Metz v Sochaux prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Metz 3–2 Sochaux METZ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metz win~~49%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.383

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.325

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Metz win at 49%.
0′KICK-OFF Metz v Sochaux
2′Little has changed for our model: Metz 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
11′A goal for Metz on 11′. 0–0 · 47–29–24
13′We said Metz at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–7
13′An own goal by Sochaux's Saad Agouzoul on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–7
13′⚽ GOAL · 11' Metz 1–0 Sochaux · Teji Savanier
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Metz win: 49% at kick-off, 76% now
29′We said Metz at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Metz 2–0 Sochaux
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Metz win: 49% at kick-off, 94% now
30′29′: Giorgi Abuashvili on the scoresheet for Metz, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
30′28′: Giorgi Abuashvili on the scoresheet for Metz, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
35′We said Metz at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Metz 2–0 Sochaux
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sochaux · On: Mathis Clairicia · Off: Landry Nomel
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sochaux · On: Louicius Deedson · Off: Yohan Demoncy
47′Benjamin Gomel scores for Sochaux on 46′. 2–0 · 96–4–1
48′We said Metz at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
48′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 80–16–4
48′⚽ GOAL · 46' Metz 2–1 Sochaux · Benjamin Gomel
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Metz win: 49% at kick-off, 80% now
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Teji Savanier · Metz
50′SECOND HALF Metz 2–0 Sochaux
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Metz · On: Bryan Rigobert Song Bahanag · Off: Bouna Sarr
63′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Benjamin Gomel · Sochaux
67′We said Metz at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sochaux · On: Dylan Tavares · Off: Dalangunypole Gomis
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Metz win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
78′77′: Teji Savanier on the scoresheet for Metz. 2–1 · 90–9–1
78′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Metz 3–1 Sochaux · Teji Savanier
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Metz win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
80′We said Metz at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Metz · On: Maxime Colin · Off: Cristian Castro
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Metz · On: Florian Miguel · Off: Giorgi Abuashvili
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sochaux · On: Samy Baghdadi · Off: Kapitbafan Djoco
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sochaux · On: Boubacar Fofana · Off: Benjamin Gomel
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Metz · On: Nathan Mbala · Off: Abdourahmane Mbodj
90′3–2 at the end. Our 49% on Metz comes in. 3–2 · 100–0–0
92′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 98–2–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Metz 3–2 Sochaux
93′90′: Louicius Deedson on the scoresheet for Sochaux, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 98–1–0
FTFULL TIME Metz 3–2 Sochaux
FTMetz 3–2 Sochaux · Metz win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Metz 49%, draw 27%, Sochaux 24%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Metz v SochauxBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Metz win49%

Draw27%

Sochaux win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStade Saint-Symphorien

RefereeGael Angoula

Line-ups

Metz

3-1-4-2

Sochaux

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Metz

Sochaux

5Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · the French Ligue 2

Last match: 9 Oct · the French Ligue 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Sochaux	8	−1	11
10	Metz	8	+1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Metz

3-1-4-2

1 J. Fischer

42 C. Devenish

5 J. Ruiz

4 M. Mboula

98 I. Mohamed

70 B. Sarr

8 J. Deminguet

10 T. Savanier

9 G. Abuashvili

33 A. Mbodji

11 P. M. Fall

Coach · Gregory Proment

Substitutes

61 · P. Sy

2 · M. Colin

3 · F. Miguel

12 · A. Toure

18 · B. Munongo

7 · I. Sane

39 · B. Song

38 · H. Kadamani

22 · N. Mbala

Sochaux

4-2-3-1

40 M. Jeannin

26 E. N'Gatta

14 M. Peybernes

97 S. Agouzoul

3 D. Gomis

21 B. Diawara

23 J. Masson

77 L. Nomel

24 Y. Demoncy

7 B. Gomel

9 K. Djoco

Coach · Vincent Hognon

Substitutes

30 · A. Pierre

42 · D. Tavares

15 · J. Mexique

8 · H. Bayanginisa

5 · S. Baghdadi

11 · L. Deedson

91 · M. Clairicia

10 · B. Fofana

44 · N. K. Mouyema

Our number · metz winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market54%

Us49%

~~Market~~54%

We make Metz a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Metz v Sochaux~~1.47 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~10 v 9

~~The market · Metz win~~54% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Metz win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metz win	49%	54%	−5
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Sochaux win	24%	20%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Both teams to score	46%	53%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	69%	74%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	22%	29%	−7
Metz or draw	76%	80%	−4
Metz clean sheet	40%	–	–
Sochaux clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 9.5 8.4 4.0 1 13.2 12.3 5.7 2 9.7 8.9 4.1 3 4.8 4.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metz down, Sochaux across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,841 Ligue 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metz at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sochaux away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Metz, 0.93 for Sochaux. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SOC 0–1 MET · MET 0–0 SOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 21 Aug

METZ

DDWLDL1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–4

SOCHAUX

WDDWDD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	8	+13	19
2	Reims	9	+8	17
3	RED Star FC 93	8	+3	17
4	Nancy	9	+3	16
5	Montpellier	8	+3	15
6	PAU	9	+2	14
7	Annecy	9	0	13
8	Dijon	9	0	12
9	Sochaux	8	−1	11
10	Metz	8	+1	10
11	Boulogne	9	0	9
12	Dunkerque	8	−3	8
13	Guingamp	9	−4	8
14	Nantes	8	−4	8
15	Grenoble	9	−7	8
16	Clermont Foot	9	−3	7
17	Rodez	8	−4	7
18	Laval	9	−7	6