Metz v PAU prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MetzDrawPAU

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Metz 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metz are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Metz 61%, draw 20%, PAU 19%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Metz v PAUBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Metz win61%

Draw20%

PAU win19%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade Saint-Symphorien

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Metz

PAU

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the French Ligue 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	PAU	10	+3	17
8	Metz	10	+2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metz winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Metz a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Metz v PAU~~2.16 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 17~~8 v 5

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metz win	61%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
PAU win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Metz or draw	81%	–	–
Metz clean sheet	34%	–	–
PAU clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.1 4.3 2.4 1 8.3 9.2 5.0 2 8.9 9.6 5.3 3 6.4 6.8 3.8 4 3.5 3.7 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metz down, PAU across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,850 Ligue 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metz at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). PAU away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Metz, 1.10 for PAU. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PAU 2–1 MET · MET 0–0 PAU · PAU 1–1 MET · MET 1–0 PAU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 4 Sept

METZ

WLDLWD4–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 3–2 · 1–1

PAU

DLWWWW1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	9	+14	22
2	Nancy	10	+4	19
3	Montpellier	9	+6	18
4	Reims	9	+8	17
5	PAU	10	+3	17
6	RED Star FC 93	9	+2	17
7	Annecy	10	+2	16
8	Metz	10	+2	14
9	Dijon	10	−1	12
10	Dunkerque	10	−2	12
11	Guingamp	10	−2	11
12	Sochaux	10	−4	11
13	Rodez	10	−6	10
14	Boulogne	9	0	9
15	Nantes	9	−5	8
16	Grenoble	10	−8	8
17	Clermont Foot	10	−5	7
18	Laval	10	−8	6