Laval v Boulogne prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LavalDrawBoulogne

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Laval 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Laval are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Laval 39%, draw 28%, Boulogne 33%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Laval v BoulogneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Laval win39%

Draw28%

Boulogne win33%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade Francis Le Basser

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Laval

Boulogne

7Days since last match14

Last match: 23 Oct · the French Ligue 2

Last match: 16 Oct · the French Ligue 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Boulogne	9	0	9
18	Laval	10	−8	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · laval winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Laval a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Laval v Boulogne~~1.22 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 9~~18 v 14

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Laval win	39%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Boulogne win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Laval or draw	67%	–	–
Laval clean sheet	34%	–	–
Boulogne clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.2 10.7 5.9 2.2 1 12.0 13.1 7.1 2.6 2 7.4 7.9 4.3 3 3.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Laval down, Boulogne across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,852 Ligue 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Laval at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Boulogne away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Laval, 1.09 for Boulogne. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LAV 2–1 BOU · BOU 1–2 LAV · LAV 1–0 BOU · BOU 1–2 LAV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 28 Aug

LAVAL

LLDLDL1–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 0–1

BOULOGNE

DDDLDW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	10	+15	25
2	Nancy	10	+4	19
3	Montpellier	9	+6	18
4	Reims	9	+8	17
5	PAU	10	+3	17
6	RED Star FC 93	9	+2	17
7	Annecy	10	+2	16
8	Metz	10	+2	14
9	Dijon	10	−1	12
10	Dunkerque	10	−2	12
11	Guingamp	10	−2	11
12	Sochaux	10	−4	11
13	Rodez	10	−6	10
14	Boulogne	9	0	9
15	Nantes	10	−6	8
16	Grenoble	10	−8	8
17	Clermont Foot	10	−5	7
18	Laval	10	−8	6