Guingamp v Saint Etienne prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GuingampDrawSaint Etienne

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Saint Etienne 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Saint Etienne are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guingamp 29%, draw 25%, Saint Etienne 46%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Guingamp v Saint EtienneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Guingamp win29%

Draw25%

Saint Etienne win46%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade de Roudourou

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guingamp

Saint Etienne

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the French Ligue 2

Last match: 24 Oct · the French Ligue 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · saint etienne winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Saint Etienne a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guingamp v Saint Etienne~~1.21 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 25~~11 v 1

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guingamp win	29%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Saint Etienne win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Guingamp or draw	54%	–	–
Guingamp clean sheet	21%	–	–
Saint Etienne clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.3 9.6 7.7 4.1 1 7.3 11.7 9.2 4.9 2 4.5 7.0 5.5 2.9 3 2.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guingamp down, Saint Etienne across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,852 Ligue 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guingamp at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Saint Etienne away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Guingamp, 1.59 for Saint Etienne. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~6 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GUI 1–2 SAI · SAI 2–3 GUI · GUI 2–2 SAI · SAI 1–3 GUI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 5 Sept

GUINGAMP

DWLLLW2–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

SAINT ETIENNE

WLDWWW3–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	10	+15	25
2	Nancy	10	+4	19
3	Montpellier	9	+6	18
4	Reims	9	+8	17
5	PAU	10	+3	17
6	RED Star FC 93	9	+2	17
7	Annecy	10	+2	16
8	Metz	10	+2	14
9	Dijon	10	−1	12
10	Dunkerque	10	−2	12
11	Guingamp	10	−2	11
12	Sochaux	10	−4	11
13	Rodez	10	−6	10
14	Boulogne	9	0	9
15	Nantes	10	−6	8
16	Grenoble	10	−8	8
17	Clermont Foot	10	−5	7
18	Laval	10	−8	6