Grenoble v Dijon prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GrenobleDrawDijon

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Grenoble 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Grenoble just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Grenoble 38%, draw 27%, Dijon 35%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Grenoble v DijonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Grenoble win38%

Draw27%

Dijon win35%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade des Alpes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grenoble

Dijon

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · the French Ligue 2

Last match: 24 Oct · the French Ligue 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Dijon	10	−1	12
16	Grenoble	10	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · grenoble winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Grenoble a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Grenoble v Dijon~~1.28 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~16 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Grenoble win

Published at 37%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grenoble win	38%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Dijon win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Grenoble or draw	65%	–	–
Grenoble clean sheet	30%	–	–
Dijon clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.5 9.9 6.1 2.5 1 10.4 12.7 7.7 3.2 2 6.7 8.0 4.9 2.0 3 2.9 3.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grenoble down, Dijon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,852 Ligue 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Grenoble at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dijon away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Grenoble, 1.22 for Dijon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DIJ 1–0 GRE · GRE 0–0 DIJ · DIJ 1–0 GRE · GRE 1–2 DIJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 4 Sept

GRENOBLE

LWDLLL1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

DIJON

DWWWLL1–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 2–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	10	+15	25
2	Nancy	10	+4	19
3	Montpellier	9	+6	18
4	Reims	9	+8	17
5	PAU	10	+3	17
6	RED Star FC 93	9	+2	17
7	Annecy	10	+2	16
8	Metz	10	+2	14
9	Dijon	10	−1	12
10	Dunkerque	10	−2	12
11	Guingamp	10	−2	11
12	Sochaux	10	−4	11
13	Rodez	10	−6	10
14	Boulogne	9	0	9
15	Nantes	10	−6	8
16	Grenoble	10	−8	8
17	Clermont Foot	10	−5	7
18	Laval	10	−8	6