Grenoble v Boulogne prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Grenoble 0–2 Boulogne GRENOBLE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Grenoble win~~42%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.776

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.614

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Grenoble win at 42%.
0′KICK-OFF Grenoble v Boulogne
2′Much as we predicted: Grenoble was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
9′SUBSTITUTION · 9' Boulogne · On: Sonny Duflos · Off: Joffrey Bultel
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Matthéo Xantippe · Grenoble
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Grenoble win 35%)
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Nolan Binet · Boulogne
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Grenoble win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
45′HALF-TIME Grenoble 0–0 Boulogne
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Lucas Bernadou · Grenoble
46′SECOND HALF Grenoble 0–0 Boulogne
51′We said Grenoble at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–48–22
52′We said Grenoble at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Grenoble · On: Kyliann Fofana · Off: Leonardo Cerri
63′We said Grenoble at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Grenoble · On: Dillion Hoogerwerf · Off: Baptiste Mouazan
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Grenoble win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
66′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Adrien Pinot · Boulogne
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Boulogne · On: Théo Brusco · Off: Adrien Pinot
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Boulogne · On: Mohamed Soumah · Off: Theo Epailly
71′We said Grenoble at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Grenoble · On: Jean-Guy Akpa Akpro · Off: Yvann Macon
77′We said Grenoble at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
79′We said Grenoble at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–11–88
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Grenoble win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Grenoble 0–1 Boulogne
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Grenoble win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Boulogne win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
80′Nolan Binet scores for Boulogne on 79′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 1–11–89
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Boulogne · On: Mathieu Mion · Off: Julien Boyer
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Boulogne · On: Benjamin Besic · Off: Sonny Duflos
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Grenoble · On: Moussa Djitté · Off: Lucas Bernadou
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Grenoble · On: Christ-Owen Kouassi · Off: Nesta Zahui
93′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–2 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Grenoble 0–2 Boulogne
94′90′: Abdel Hbouch on the scoresheet for Boulogne, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Grenoble 0–2 Boulogne
FTGrenoble 0–2 Boulogne · Grenoble win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Grenoble are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Grenoble 42%, draw 30%, Boulogne 28%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Grenoble v BoulogneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Grenoble win42%

Draw30%

Boulogne win28%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStade des Alpes

RefereeBrendan Roffet

Line-ups

Grenoble

4-1-4-1

Boulogne

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grenoble

Boulogne

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · the French Ligue 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Grenoble	8	−5	8
16	Boulogne	8	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Grenoble

4-1-4-1

20 A. Olliero

19 N. Zahui

43 A. Pelon

5 C. Vidal

27 M. Xantippe

14 M. Corboz

97 Y. Macon

30 S. Diba

8 L. Bernadou

10 B. Mouazan

17 L. Cerri

Coach · Olivier Frapolli

Substitutes

16 · B. Allain

3 · F. Limouri

21 · C. Kouassi

6 · Y. Magnin

2 · M. Djitte

23 · D. Hoogewerf

92 · J. Akpa Akpro

47 · K. Fofana

12 · U. Bonnet

Boulogne

3-1-4-2

99 B. Noukeu

18 D. Thiam

25 A. Kerriou

15 A. Pinot

8 J. Martin

11 N. Fatar

14 J. Bultel

19 N. Binet

12 J. Boyer

10 A. Hbouch

64 T. Epailly

Coach · Fabien Dagneaux

Substitutes

1 · X. Lenogue

29 · M. Mion

20 · T. Brusco

28 · S. Paillard

22 · S. Duflos

21 · A. Platret

36 · M. Soumah

17 · B. Besic

7 · A. Nassiri

Our number · grenoble winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

42% The market33%

Us42%

~~Market~~33%

We make Grenoble a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Grenoble v Boulogne~~1.20 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D5 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 6~~14 v 16

~~The market · Grenoble win~~33% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Grenoble win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grenoble win	42%	33%	+9
Draw	30%	31%	−1
Boulogne win	28%	36%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	36%	40%	−4
Both teams to score	42%	47%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	17%	21%	−4
Grenoble or draw	72%	64%	+8
Grenoble clean sheet	39%	–	–
Boulogne clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 12.1 10.9 5.2 1 14.0 13.3 6.1 2 8.5 7.9 3.7 3 3.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grenoble down, Boulogne across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,836 Ligue 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Grenoble at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Boulogne away: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Grenoble, 0.93 for Boulogne. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GRE 0–0 BOU · BOU 3–1 GRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 21 Aug

GRENOBLE

LWLWDL0–4 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

BOULOGNE

DDDDLD1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	8	+13	19
2	RED Star FC 93	8	+3	17
3	Montpellier	8	+3	15
4	Reims	8	+6	14
5	Nancy	8	+2	13
6	Annecy	8	+1	13
7	Dijon	8	+2	12
8	PAU	8	+1	11
9	Sochaux	8	−1	11
10	Metz	8	+1	10
11	Guingamp	8	−3	8
12	Dunkerque	8	−3	8
13	Nantes	8	−4	8
14	Grenoble	8	−5	8
15	Rodez	8	−4	7
16	Boulogne	8	−2	6
17	Clermont Foot	8	−3	6
18	Laval	8	−7	5