Dunkerque v Metz

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Metz win at 44%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Metz 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 32–25–44
3. 1′KICK-OFF Dunkerque v Metz
4. 10′Pape Moussa Fall scores for Metz on 9′. 0–0 · 31–26–42
5. 10′We said Metz at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 13–18–69
6. 10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Dunkerque 0–1 Metz · Pape Moussa Fall
7. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Metz win: 44% at kick-off, 69% now
8. 17′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Abdourahmane Mbodj · Metz
9. 20′We said Metz at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 12–19–70
10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 10–19–70
11. 45′HALF-TIME Dunkerque 0–1 Metz
12. 46′SECOND HALF Dunkerque 0–1 Metz
13. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Metz win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
14. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Jordan Morel · Dunkerque
15. 54′We said Metz at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
16. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Metz · On: Nathan Mbala · Off: Abdourahmane Mbodj
17. 61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Dunkerque
18. 62′Dunkerque are down to ten from 61′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 4–18–78
19. 65′We said Metz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 21–52–27
20. 65′Opa Sangante scores for Dunkerque on 65′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 21–52–27
21. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Dunkerque 1–1 Metz
22. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Metz win: 44% at kick-off, 27% now
23. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Metz win 79%)
24. 65′PENALTY MISSED · 65' Opa Sangante · Dunkerque
25. 67′Dunkerque have had 11 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 20–54–25
26. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dunkerque · On: Khalil Ayari · Off: Souleymane Keita
27. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dunkerque · On: Steven​ N'Zonzi · Off: Théna Massock
28. 69′We said Metz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 19–57–24
29. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Metz win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
30. 72′12 shots for Dunkerque, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 17–61–22
31. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dunkerque · On: Victor Mayela · Off: Abner
32. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dunkerque · On: Arthylio Nade · Off: Gaëtan Robail
33. 75′We said Metz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–65–19
34. 80′We said Metz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 11–74–14
35. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Metz win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
36. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Metz · On: Abdoulaye Agne Ba · Off: Giorgi Abuashvili
37. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Metz · On: Bryan Song · Off: Bouna Sarr
38. 84′We said Metz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
39. 90′1–1 at the end. Our 44% on Metz misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
40. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Cristian Castro · Metz
41. 91′We said Metz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–92–4
42. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Metz win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
43. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Dunkerque · On: Franck Leroy Atoen · Off: Adrian Lebeau
44. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Arthylio Nade · Dunkerque
45. FTFULL TIME Dunkerque 1–1 Metz
46. FTDunkerque 1–1 Metz · Metz win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.