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Dunkerque v Annecy

Dunkerque

0–1Full time

Annecy

Ligue 2 · FRI 9 OCT · Stade Marcel Tribut

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Dunkerque 0–1 Annecy DUNKERQUE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dunkerque win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.662

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.734

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dunkerque win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dunkerque was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
1′KICK-OFF Dunkerque v Annecy
16′SUBSTITUTION · 16' Dunkerque · On: Abner · Off: Lenny Vallier Corrected
38′We said Dunkerque at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–23–66
38′38′ and it is 0–1: Moïse Sahi on the scoresheet for Annecy. 0–1 · 11–23–66
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Dunkerque 0–1 Annecy
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Dunkerque win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Annecy win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Dunkerque win 11%)
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Dunkerque 0–1 Annecy · Moïse Sahi
40′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 11–23–66
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Théna Massock · Dunkerque
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Dunkerque win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′SECOND HALF Dunkerque 0–1 Annecy
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Opa Sangante · Dunkerque
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Julien Kouadio · Annecy
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Opa Sangante · Dunkerque
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Dunkerque · On: Alex Daho · Off: Khalil Ayari Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Dunkerque · On: Arthylio Nade · Off: Souleymane Keita Corrected
70′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Paul Venot · Annecy
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Annecy · On: Alexis Casadei · Off: M. Koné Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Annecy · On: Souleymane Fofana · Off: Moïse Sahi Corrected
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Alexis Casadei · Annecy
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Dunkerque · On: M'Baye Niang · Off: Egor Prutsev Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Annecy · On: Adam Yahi · Off: Thibault Rambaud Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Annecy · On: Kilyan Veniere · Off: Clement Billemaz Corrected
84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Antoine Larose · Annecy
FTFULL TIME Dunkerque 0–1 Annecy
FTDunkerque 0–1 Annecy · Dunkerque win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dunkerque win40%

Draw26%

Annecy win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Stade Marcel Tribut

Referee · Chamel, Soulaimane

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Dunkerque

4-2-3-1

73 Moha

27 A. Linguet

26 O. Sangante

2 O. Toure

24 L. Vallier

6 J. Morel

18 T. Massock

7 K. Ayari

10 A. Lebeau

11 E. Prutsev

19 S. Keita

Coach · Albert Sanchez

Substitutes

16 · M. Prevot

30 · F. Abner

35 · F. Belabdelli

21 · L. Dziki Loussilaho

25 · F. Atoen

99 · M. Niang

9 · G. Robail

93 · A. Daho

23 · A. Nade

Annecy

4-2-3-1

1 F. Escales

41 T. Delphis

23 M. Veillon

26 J. Do Marcolino

27 J. Kouadio

14 M. Kone

25 P. Venot

28 A. Larose

80 M. Dion

22 C. Billemaz

9 T. Rambaud

Coach · Laurent Guyot

Substitutes

16 · T. Callens

21 · E. Marre

33 · G. Secretant

15 · P. Mozie

19 · K. Jusseron-Veniere

8 · A. Casadei

11 · S. Fofana

20 · A. Yahi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dunkerque

4-2-3-1

73 Moha

27 A. Linguet

26 O. Sangante

2 O. Toure

24 L. Vallier

6 J. Morel

18 T. Massock

7 K. Ayari

10 A. Lebeau

11 E. Prutsev

19 S. Keita

Coach · Albert Sanchez

Substitutes

16 · M. Prevot

30 · F. Abner

35 · F. Belabdelli

21 · L. Dziki Loussilaho

25 · F. Atoen

99 · M. Niang

9 · G. Robail

93 · A. Daho

23 · A. Nade

Annecy

4-2-3-1

1 F. Escales

41 T. Delphis

23 M. Veillon

26 J. Do Marcolino

27 J. Kouadio

14 M. Kone

25 P. Venot

28 A. Larose

80 M. Dion

22 C. Billemaz

9 T. Rambaud

Coach · Laurent Guyot

Substitutes

16 · T. Callens

21 · E. Marre

33 · G. Secretant

15 · P. Mozie

19 · K. Jusseron-Veniere

8 · A. Casadei

11 · S. Fofana

20 · A. Yahi

Our number · dunkerque winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make Dunkerque a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dunkerque win	40%	42%	−2
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Annecy win	34%	31%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	54%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Dunkerque or draw	66%	69%	−4
Dunkerque clean sheet	28%	–	–
Annecy clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.0 8.6 5.6 2.4 1 9.4 12.3 7.7 3.3 2 6.7 8.5 5.4 2.4 3 3.2 4.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dunkerque down, Annecy across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,827 Ligue 2 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dunkerque at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Annecy away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Dunkerque, 1.28 for Annecy. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DUN 0–1 ANN · ANN 2–2 DUN · ANN 0–2 DUN · DUN 0–2 ANN

Form · last six in Ligue 2

DUNKERQUE

DLLDWL3–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

ANNECY

WLDWLL2–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	7	+11	16
2	RED Star FC 93	7	+2	14
3	Reims	7	+6	13
4	Montpellier	7	+1	12
5	Metz	7	+3	10
6	Nancy	7	+1	10
7	Annecy	7	0	10
8	Sochaux	7	−1	10
9	Dijon	7	0	9
10	PAU	7	0	8
11	Dunkerque	7	−2	8
12	Guingamp	7	−2	8
13	Grenoble	7	−3	8
14	Rodez	7	−2	7
15	Nantes	7	−4	7
16	Clermont Foot	7	−2	6
17	Boulogne	7	−2	5
18	Laval	7	−6	5