Dijon v Metz prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:30

Dijon 4–2 Metz METZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metz win~~45%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.763

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.662

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Metz win at 45%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Metz 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 29–26–45
1′Little has changed for our model: Metz 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 29–26–45
18′A goal for Dijon on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 58–24–18
19′H. Vargas Ríos scores for Dijon on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 58–24–18
20′H. Vargas Ríos scores for Dijon on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 58–24–18
22′We said Metz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 59–24–17
23′24′ and it is 2–0: Ange Lago on the scoresheet for Dijon. 2–0 · 83–12–5
25′We said Metz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–0 · 83–11–5
30′We said Metz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–11–4
32′Dijon ahead on 32′ through Júlio Tavares. 3–0. 3–0 · 96–3–1
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Metz win: 45% at kick-off, 18% now
33′Dijon ahead on 32′ through Júlio Tavares. 3–0. 3–0 · 96–3–1
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Metz win: 45% at kick-off, 1% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Metz win: 45% at kick-off, 18% now
34′We said Metz at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 3–0 · 96–3–1
35′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 96–3–1
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Metz win: 45% at kick-off, 1% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Dijon win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Metz win 1%)
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Metz win: 45% at kick-off, 1% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Dijon win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Metz win 1%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Metz win: 45% at kick-off, 1% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Dijon win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Metz win 1%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Metz win: 45% at kick-off, 1% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Dijon win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Metz win 1%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Metz win: 45% at kick-off, 1% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Dijon win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Metz win 1%)
43′⚽ GOAL · 44' Dijon 3–0 Metz · Pape Moussa Fall
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Dijon 3–1 Metz · Pape Moussa Fall
45′SECOND HALF Dijon 3–1 Metz
51′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Metz · On: Abdourahmane Mbodj · Off: Believe Munongo
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dijon · On: Alexis Ntamack · Off: Ange Lago
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dijon · On: Brandon Nsimba Ndezi · Off: H. Vargas Ríos
61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Florian Miguel · Metz
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Metz · On: Morgan Bokele Mputu · Off: Florian Miguel
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Metz · On: Ibou Sane · Off: Giorgi Abuashvili
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Dijon 4–1 Metz · Pape Moussa Fall
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Dijon 4–1 Metz · Quentin Bernard
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Cristian Castro · Metz
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dijon · On: Samy Chouchane · Off: Adel Lembezat
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dijon · On: Tyris Dong · Off: Júlio Tavares
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Dijon · On: Luis Puleri · Off: Boubacar Diallo
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Metz · On: Bryan Rigobert Song Bahanag · Off: Bouna Sarr
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Metz · On: Abdoulaye Agne Ba · Off: Maxime Colin
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Dijon 4–2 Metz · Quentin Bernard
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Dijon 4–2 Metz · Pape Moussa Fall
FTFULL TIME Dijon 4–2 Metz
FTDijon 4–2 Metz · Metz win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get a pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:31 · locked at kick-off

Dijon win30%

Draw26%

Metz win45%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:45

VenueStade Gaston-Gérard

RefereeMarc Bollengier

Line-ups

Dijon

4-3-1-2

Metz

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dijon

Metz

24Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Metz	7	+3	10
10	Dijon	7	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dijon

4-3-1-2

16 P. Delecroix

7 B. Hamada

23 L. Lacroix

5 Q. Bernard

75 B. Diallo

8 P. Bellon

14 J. Marie

20 H. Vargas-Rios

17 A. Lembezat

11 J. Tavares

90 E. Lago

Coach · Baptiste Ridira

Substitutes

46 · I. Marie-Rose

93 · I. Bouleghcha

6 · W. Diouf

32 · L. Puleri

18 · B. Ndezi

21 · S. Chouchane

29 · A. Ntamack

10 · Y. Barka

9 · T. Dong

Metz

3-5-2

1 J. Fischer

2 M. Colin

42 C. Devenish

5 J. Ruiz

70 B. Sarr

12 A. Toure

18 B. Munongo

8 J. Deminguet

3 F. Miguel

11 P. M. Fall

9 G. Abuashvili

Coach · Gregory Proment

Substitutes

61 · P. Sy

4 · M. Mboula

98 · I. Mohamed

30 · T. Dos Santos

7 · I. Sane

19 · M. Bokele

88 · A. Ba

33 · A. Mbodji

39 · B. Song

Our number · metz winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:31 · locked at kick-off

45% The market39%

Us45%

~~Market~~39%

We make Metz a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · metz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dijon win	30%	34%	−4
Draw	26%	27%	−2
Metz win	45%	39%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	49%	55%	−6
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	77%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Dijon or draw	55%	61%	−6
Dijon clean sheet	23%	–	–
Metz clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 10.4 7.8 3.9 1 8.1 12.1 8.8 4.4 2 4.8 6.9 5.1 2.6 3 2.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dijon down, Metz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,835 Ligue 2 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.7% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dijon at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Metz away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Dijon, 1.50 for Metz. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DIJ 0–0 MET · MET 1–2 DIJ

Form · last six in Ligue 2

DIJON

LDLDWW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–1

METZ

DDDWLD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	8	+13	19
2	RED Star FC 93	8	+3	17
3	Montpellier	8	+3	15
4	Reims	8	+6	14
5	Nancy	8	+2	13
6	Annecy	8	+1	13
7	PAU	8	+1	11
8	Sochaux	8	−1	11
9	Metz	7	+3	10
10	Dijon	7	0	9
11	Dunkerque	8	−3	8
12	Guingamp	8	−3	8
13	Nantes	8	−4	8
14	Grenoble	8	−5	8
15	Rodez	8	−4	7
16	Boulogne	8	−2	6
17	Clermont Foot	8	−3	6
18	Laval	8	−7	5