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Clermont Foot v RED Star FC 93

Clermont Foot

2–3Full time

RED Star FC 93

Ligue 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Stade Gabriel Montpied

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Clermont Foot 2–3 RED Star FC 93 RED STAR FC 93 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RED Star FC 93 win~~36%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.618

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.445

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RED Star FC 93 win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Clermont Foot was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
1′KICK-OFF Clermont Foot v RED Star FC 93
6′⚽ GOAL · 7' Clermont Foot 0–0 RED Star FC 93
8′RED Star FC 93 ahead on 7′ through Jovany Ikanga A Ngele. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–21–65
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Clermont Foot 0–1 RED Star FC 93 · Jovany Ikanga A Ngele
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' RED Star FC 93 win: 36% at kick-off, 65% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' RED Star FC 93 win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Clermont Foot win 14%)
10′We said Clermont Foot at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–21–65
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' RED Star FC 93 win: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
21′Enzo Cantero scores for Clermont Foot on 21′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–33–34
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Clermont Foot 1–1 RED Star FC 93 · Jovany Ikanga A Ngele
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Clermont Foot 1–1 RED Star FC 93 · Enzo Cantero
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' RED Star FC 93 win: 36% at kick-off, 34% now
24′Enzo Cantero scores for Clermont Foot on 22′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–34–33
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was RED Star FC 93 win 32%)
45′SECOND HALF Clermont Foot 1–1 RED Star FC 93
54′55′ and it is 1–1: Damien Durand on the scoresheet for RED Star FC 93. 1–1 · 26–48–26
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' RED Star FC 93 win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Clermont Foot 1–2 RED Star FC 93 · Enzo Cantero
54′⚽ GOAL · 55' Clermont Foot 1–2 RED Star FC 93 · Damien Durand
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Clermont Foot 1–2 RED Star FC 93 · Damien Durand
57′We said Clermont Foot at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' RED Star FC 93 win: 36% at kick-off, 75% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' RED Star FC 93 win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
59′We said Clermont Foot at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–19–76
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' RED Star FC 93 win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
60′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–19–77
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Clermont Foot · On: Christ Okou · Off: Luís Semedo
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Clermont Foot · On: Adrien Hunou · Off: Marouane Admar
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Clermont Foot 1–3 RED Star FC 93 · Jovany Ikanga A Ngele
69′RED Star FC 93 ahead on 68′ through Jovany Ikanga A Ngele. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' RED Star FC 93 win: 36% at kick-off, 98% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' RED Star FC 93 · On: Bradley Danger · Off: Samuel Renel
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' RED Star FC 93 · On: Idrissa Sabaly · Off: Saîf-Eddine Khaoui
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Clermont Foot · On: Salomon Sambia · Off: Rominigue Kouame
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Clermont Foot · On: Ousmane Diop · Off: Enzo Cantero
71′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–2–98
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' RED Star FC 93 · On: Godson Kyeremeh · Off: Damien Durand
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' RED Star FC 93 · On: Ilija Despotovic · Off: Jovany Ikanga A Ngele
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Florian Bianchini · Clermont Foot
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Théo Guivarch · Clermont Foot
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' RED Star FC 93 · On: Matthieu Huard · Off: Elyaz Zidane
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Clermont Foot · On: Ivan M'Bahia · Off: Jean Grillot
89′⚽ GOAL · 90' Clermont Foot 2–3 RED Star FC 93 · Florian Bianchini
91′Florian Bianchini scores for Clermont Foot on 90′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–0–100
91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Clermont Foot 2–3 RED Star FC 93 · Florian Bianchini
92′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–0–100
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Islamdine Halifa · RED Star FC 93
FTFULL TIME Clermont Foot 2–3 RED Star FC 93
FTClermont Foot 2–3 RED Star FC 93 · RED Star FC 93 win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Clermont Foot win36%

Draw28%

RED Star FC 93 win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Stade Gabriel Montpied

Referee · Leprodhomme·Tifenn

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Clermont Foot

4-1-4-1

30 T. Guivarch

93 I. Coulibaly

21 Y. Salmier

4 E. Kabeya

6 E. H. Kone

5 J. Grillot

77 E. Cantero

26 R. Kouame

22 M. Admar

7 F. Bianchini

9 L. Semedo

Coach · David Guion

Substitutes

16 · M. N'Diaye

10 · J. Sambia

3 · A. Pelmard

28 · I. M'Bahia

13 · J. Astic

17 · O. Diop

39 · J. Nyindong Tsamouna

23 · A. Hunou

90 · C. Okou

RED Star FC 93

4-2-3-1

16 G. Poussin

2 T. Magnin

20 D. Durivaux

5 J. Escartin

4 E. Zidane

19 I. Halifa

17 S. Renel

11 K. Cisse

10 S. Khaoui

7 D. Durand

23 J. Ikanga

Coach · Damien Perrinelle

Substitutes

1 · Y. Benchaouch

3 · M. Huard

80 · C. Bianay Balcot

6 · B. Danger

25 · L. Buta

21 · I. Sabaly

45 · C. Konate

27 · G. Kyeremeh

9 · I. Despotovic

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Clermont Foot

4-1-4-1

30 T. Guivarch

93 I. Coulibaly

21 Y. Salmier

4 E. Kabeya

6 E. H. Kone

5 J. Grillot

77 E. Cantero

26 R. Kouame

22 M. Admar

7 F. Bianchini

9 L. Semedo

Coach · David Guion

Substitutes

16 · M. N'Diaye

10 · J. Sambia

3 · A. Pelmard

28 · I. M'Bahia

13 · J. Astic

17 · O. Diop

39 · J. Nyindong Tsamouna

23 · A. Hunou

90 · C. Okou

RED Star FC 93

4-2-3-1

16 G. Poussin

2 T. Magnin

20 D. Durivaux

5 J. Escartin

4 E. Zidane

19 I. Halifa

17 S. Renel

11 K. Cisse

10 S. Khaoui

7 D. Durand

23 J. Ikanga

Coach · Damien Perrinelle

Substitutes

1 · Y. Benchaouch

3 · M. Huard

80 · C. Bianay Balcot

6 · B. Danger

25 · L. Buta

21 · I. Sabaly

45 · C. Konate

27 · G. Kyeremeh

9 · I. Despotovic

Our number · red star fc 93 winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

36% The market46%

Us36%

~~Market~~46%

We make RED Star FC 93 a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · red star fc 93 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Clermont Foot win	36%	26%	+10
Draw	28%	28%	0
RED Star FC 93 win	36%	46%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	27%	−6
Clermont Foot or draw	64%	54%	+10
Clermont Foot clean sheet	31%	–	–
RED Star FC 93 clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.0 11.3 6.6 2.6 1 11.2 13.2 7.6 3.0 2 6.6 7.6 4.4 3 2.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Clermont Foot down, RED Star FC 93 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,832 Ligue 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.1% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Clermont Foot at home: 0.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). RED Star FC 93 away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Clermont Foot, 1.17 for RED Star FC 93. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 12:59. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CLE 0–1 RED · RED 2–2 CLE · RED 1–1 CLE · CLE 1–1 RED

Form · last six in Ligue 2

CLERMONT FOOT

LDDDDD1–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

RED STAR FC 93

DDLWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	7	+11	16
2	Montpellier	8	+3	15
3	RED Star FC 93	7	+2	14
4	Reims	7	+6	13
5	Nancy	8	+2	13
6	Annecy	8	+1	13
7	PAU	8	+1	11
8	Sochaux	8	−1	11
9	Metz	7	+3	10
10	Dijon	7	0	9
11	Dunkerque	8	−3	8
12	Guingamp	8	−3	8
13	Grenoble	8	−5	8
14	Rodez	7	−2	7
15	Nantes	7	−4	7
16	Boulogne	8	−2	6
17	Clermont Foot	7	−2	6
18	Laval	8	−7	5