Clermont Foot v Guingamp prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33

Clermont Foot 0–2 Guingamp CLERMONT FOOT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Clermont Foot win~~38%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.637

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.529

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Clermont Foot win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Clermont Foot 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
1′KICK-OFF Clermont Foot v Guingamp
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' David Guion · Clermont Foot
24′We said Clermont Foot at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–22–65
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Clermont Foot 0–1 Guingamp
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Clermont Foot win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Guingamp win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Clermont Foot win 35%)
25′Samir Ben Brahim scores for Guingamp on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–22–65
27′Samir Ben Brahim scores for Guingamp on 24′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–65
29′We said Clermont Foot at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Clermont Foot 0–2 Guingamp
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Clermont Foot win: 38% at kick-off, 3% now
30′29′: Samir Ben Brahim on the scoresheet for Guingamp, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Jérémie Matumona Makanga · Guingamp
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Tom Ducrocq · Guingamp
45′SECOND HALF Clermont Foot 0–2 Guingamp
47′HALF-TIME Clermont Foot 0–2 Guingamp
57′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–94
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Clermont Foot · On: Salomon Sambia · Off: Allan Ackra
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Clermont Foot · On: Adrien Hunou · Off: Enzo Cantero
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Guingamp · On: Florent Sanchez Da Silva · Off: Samir Ben Brahim
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Clermont Foot · On: Luís Semedo · Off: Christ Okou
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Guingamp · On: Tanguy Ahile · Off: Teddy Andami Averlant
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Guingamp · On: Amadou Samoura · Off: Tom Ducrocq
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Clermont Foot · On: El Hadj Koné · Off: Vital N'Simba
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Clermont Foot · On: Ousmane Diop · Off: Ibrahim Moriba Coulibaly
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Guingamp · On: Ewan Aucan · Off: Stanislas Kielt
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Guingamp · On: Tuomas Ollila · Off: Jérémie Matumona Makanga
94′0–2 at the end. Our 38% on Clermont Foot misses, and the record keeps it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Clermont Foot 0–2 Guingamp
FTClermont Foot 0–2 Guingamp · Clermont Foot win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Clermont Foot just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Clermont Foot 38%, draw 27%, Guingamp 35%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Clermont Foot v GuingampBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Clermont Foot win38%

Draw27%

Guingamp win35%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStade Gabriel Montpied

RefereeKarim Abed

Line-ups

Clermont Foot

4-3-3

Guingamp

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Clermont Foot

Guingamp

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the French Ligue 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Guingamp	9	−4	8
16	Clermont Foot	9	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Clermont Foot

4-3-3

30 T. Guivarch

93 I. Coulibaly

21 Y. Salmier

3 A. Pelmard

12 V. N'Simba

26 R. Kouamé

28 I. M'Bahia

44 A. Ackra

77 E. Cantero

90 C. Okou

7 F. Bianchini

Coach · David Guion

Substitutes

16 · M. Ndiaye

4 · E. Kabeya

6 · E. Koné

13 · J. Astic

10 · J. Sambia

17 · O. Diop

23 · A. Hunou

9 · Luís Semedo

22 · Marouane Admar

Guingamp

4-4-2

16 Adrián Ortolá

2 E. Koffi

7 D. Gomis

36 A. Demouchy

3 J. Matumona

11 T. Averlant

4 D. Louiserre

25 T. Ducrocq

20 S. Ben Brahim

18 S. Kielt

10 A. Hemia

Coach · S. Ripoll

Substitutes

17 · A. Samoura

21 · T. Ahile

31 · J. Matondo

24 · J. Dianganga

5 · T. Ollila

8 · F. Da Silva

1 · T. Bartouche

38 · E. Aucan

35 · N. Fondja

Our number · clermont foot winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market31%

Us38%

~~Market~~31%

We make Clermont Foot a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Clermont Foot v Guingamp~~1.30 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D5 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~16 v 13

~~The market · Clermont Foot win~~31% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Clermont Foot win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Clermont Foot win	38%	31%	+7
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Guingamp win	35%	41%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	46%	49%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	29%	−4
Clermont Foot or draw	65%	59%	+6
Clermont Foot clean sheet	29%	–	–
Guingamp clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 9.7 6.1 2.5 1 10.2 12.7 7.8 3.2 2 6.7 8.1 5.0 2.1 3 2.9 3.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Clermont Foot down, Guingamp across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,845 Ligue 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Clermont Foot at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Guingamp away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Clermont Foot, 1.24 for Guingamp. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 18:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CLE 1–0 GUI · GUI 0–1 CLE · GUI 3–1 CLE · CLE 4–1 GUI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 28 Aug

CLERMONT FOOT

DDDDLD0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–3

GUINGAMP

DDWLLL3–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	9	+14	22
2	Montpellier	9	+6	18
3	Reims	9	+8	17
4	RED Star FC 93	9	+2	17
5	Nancy	9	+3	16
6	PAU	9	+2	14
7	Metz	9	+2	13
8	Annecy	9	0	13
9	Dijon	9	0	12
10	Dunkerque	9	−2	11
11	Sochaux	9	−2	11
12	Boulogne	9	0	9
13	Guingamp	9	−4	8
14	Nantes	9	−5	8
15	Grenoble	9	−7	8
16	Clermont Foot	9	−3	7
17	Rodez	9	−7	7
18	Laval	9	−7	6