Boulogne v Reims prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BoulogneDrawReims

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Reims 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Reims are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Boulogne 28%, draw 27%, Reims 45%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Boulogne v ReimsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Boulogne win28%

Draw27%

Reims win45%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStade de la Libération

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boulogne

Reims

10Days since last match10

Last match: 16 Oct · the French Ligue 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Reims	9	+8	17
14	Boulogne	9	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · reims winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market41%

Us45%

~~Market~~41%

We make Reims a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Boulogne v Reims~~1.06 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 17~~14 v 4

~~The market · Reims win~~41% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Reims win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boulogne win	28%	30%	−2
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Reims win	45%	41%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	45%	44%	+1
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	69%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	25%	−1
Boulogne or draw	55%	59%	−4
Boulogne clean sheet	25%	–	–
Reims clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.7 11.8 8.3 3.9 1 8.9 12.6 8.7 4.1 2 4.8 6.6 4.6 2.2 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Boulogne down, Reims across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,852 Ligue 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Boulogne at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Reims away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Boulogne, 1.41 for Reims. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~REI 0–0 BOU · BOU 2–6 REI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 28 Aug

BOULOGNE

DDDLDW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

REIMS

WDWDDW4–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	10	+15	25
2	Nancy	10	+4	19
3	Montpellier	9	+6	18
4	Reims	9	+8	17
5	PAU	10	+3	17
6	RED Star FC 93	9	+2	17
7	Annecy	10	+2	16
8	Metz	10	+2	14
9	Dijon	10	−1	12
10	Dunkerque	10	−2	12
11	Guingamp	10	−2	11
12	Sochaux	10	−4	11
13	Rodez	10	−6	10
14	Boulogne	9	0	9
15	Nantes	10	−6	8
16	Grenoble	10	−8	8
17	Clermont Foot	10	−5	7
18	Laval	10	−8	6