Toulouse v Estac Troyes
ToulouseEstac TroyesLigue 1 · SUN 25 OCT · Stadium Municipal
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Toulouse are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Toulouse 59%, draw 22%, Estac Troyes 18%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Toulouse win59%Estac Troyes win18%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:15
RoundMatchday 8
VenueStadium Municipal
RefereeGeoffrey Kubler
Match timeline
All events
ToulouseMINEstac TroyesEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Toulouse
Estac Troyes
Last match: 16 Oct · the French Ligue 1
Last match: 17 Oct · the French Ligue 1
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | −11 | 4 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Toulouse a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 60%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse win | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | −1 |
| Estac Troyes win | 18% | 18% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Toulouse or draw | 82% | 82% | 0 |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 37% | – | – |
| Estac Troyes clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 29 Aug
TOULOUSE
ESTAC TROYES
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 |  Lille | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 8 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Monaco | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Lens | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Rennes | 7 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 |  Lorient | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Nice | 8 | −2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 7 | −6 | 9 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | −3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers | 7 | −6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | −5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | −11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | −6 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.