Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Paris Saint Germain win at 53%.
2. 2′Much as we predicted: Paris Saint Germain was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 24–23–53
3. 2′KICK-OFF Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain
4. 18′We said Paris Saint Germain at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–0 · 50–24–27
5. 18′A goal for Strasbourg on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 50–24–27
6. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Strasbourg 1–0 Paris Saint Germain
7. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Paris Saint Germain win: 53% at kick-off, 27% now
8. 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Strasbourg win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Paris Saint Germain win 27%)
9. 25′We said Paris Saint Germain at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 51–24–24
10. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Paris Saint Germain win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
11. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 53–25–23
12. 39′We said Paris Saint Germain at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 55–26–19
13. 45′HALF-TIME Strasbourg 1–0 Paris Saint Germain
14. 46′SECOND HALF Strasbourg 1–0 Paris Saint Germain
15. 51′We said Paris Saint Germain at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
16. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Paris Saint Germain win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
17. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Paris Saint Germain · On: Nuno Mendes · Off: Lucas Digne
18. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Paris Saint Germain · On: Désiré Doue · Off: Dro Fernández
19. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Paris Saint Germain · On: Vitinha · Off: Lucas Beraldo
20. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Strasbourg · On: Samuel Amo-Ameyaw · Off: Fábio Baldé
21. 62′We said Paris Saint Germain at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 65–25–9
22. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Paris Saint Germain · On: Achraf Hakimi · Off: João Neves
23. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Paris Saint Germain · On: Ousmane Dembélé · Off: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
24. 74′We said Paris Saint Germain at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
25. 74′PENALTY MISSED · 72' Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain
26. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Paris Saint Germain win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
27. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Strasbourg · On: Samir El-Mourabet · Off: Pape Demba Diop
28. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Conrad Harder · Strasbourg
29. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Strasbourg 1–1 Paris Saint Germain
30. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Paris Saint Germain win: 53% at kick-off, 21% now
31. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Strasbourg win 13%)
32. 78′77′: Ilya Zabarnyi on the scoresheet for Paris Saint Germain, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 12–67–20
33. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Dario Essugo · Strasbourg
34. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Paris Saint Germain win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
35. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Strasbourg · On: Yaya Dieme · Off: Gessime Yassine
36. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Strasbourg · On: Jacobo Ortega · Off: Conrad Harder
37. 86′Paris Saint Germain ahead on 85′ through Ousmane Dembélé. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
38. 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Strasbourg 1–2 Paris Saint Germain · Ousmane Dembélé
39. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Paris Saint Germain win: 53% at kick-off, 94% now
40. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Paris Saint Germain win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
41. 87′We published Paris Saint Germain at 53%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–2 · 0–5–94
42. 88′We published Paris Saint Germain at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
43. 93′We published Paris Saint Germain at 53%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
44. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Strasbourg 1–3 Paris Saint Germain
45. 94′Désiré Doue scores for Paris Saint Germain on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
46. 95′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
47. FTFULL TIME Strasbourg 1–3 Paris Saint Germain
48. FTStrasbourg 1–3 Paris Saint Germain · Paris Saint Germain win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.