Stade Brestois 29 v Nice prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Stade Brestois 29 1–2 Nice STADE BRESTOIS 29 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stade Brestois 29 win~~41%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.703

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.748

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stade Brestois 29 win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Stade Brestois 29 was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Stade Brestois 29 v Nice
16′Stade Brestois 29 find the net on 15′. 0–0 · 40–29–31
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Stade Brestois 29 1–0 Nice · Ludovic Ajorque
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Stade Brestois 29 win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
17′We published Stade Brestois 29 at 41%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–19–12
24′We published Stade Brestois 29 at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–10
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Stade Brestois 29 win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
45′HALF-TIME Stade Brestois 29 1–0 Nice
46′SECOND HALF Stade Brestois 29 1–0 Nice
53′We published Stade Brestois 29 at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Nice · On: Hamza Koutoune · Off: Jonathan Clauss
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Hamza Koutoune · Nice
61′We said Stade Brestois 29 at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–50–23
61′Nice level it on 61′ through Sepe Elye Wahi. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–50–23
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Stade Brestois 29 1–1 Nice
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Stade Brestois 29 win: 41% at kick-off, 27% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Stade Brestois 29 win 77%)
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Kamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Nice · On: Sofiane Diop · Off: Gauthier Hein
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Ludovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29
67′We said Stade Brestois 29 at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–20
70′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Sepe Elye Wahi · Nice
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Stade Brestois 29 · On: Joseph Nonge · Off: Mama Baldé
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Stade Brestois 29 · On: Noah Edjouma · Off: Pathé Mboup
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Stade Brestois 29 win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Bradley Locko · Stade Brestois 29
74′We said Stade Brestois 29 at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nice · On: Djibril Coulibaly · Off: Axel Witsel
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Nice · On: Isak Jansson · Off: Mohamed Amoura
79′We said Stade Brestois 29 at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Stade Brestois 29 · On: Ibrahim Yayiya Kanté · Off: Kamory Doumbia
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Stade Brestois 29 · On: Mamady Diambou · Off: Joris Chotard
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Stade Brestois 29 win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
83′We said Stade Brestois 29 at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Stade Brestois 29 1–2 Nice
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Stade Brestois 29 win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Nice win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 82%)
84′Sofiane Diop scores for Nice on 83′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–8–91
85′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–8–92
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Yehvann Diouf · Nice
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Stade Brestois 29 · On: Mathis Lainé · Off: Hugo Magnetti
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Niels Nkounkou · Nice
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Olivier Pantaloni · Nice
100′🟨 YELLOW · 90+8' Isak Jansson · Nice
FTFULL TIME Stade Brestois 29 1–2 Nice
FTStade Brestois 29 1–2 Nice · Stade Brestois 29 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stade Brestois 29 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stade Brestois 29 41%, draw 27%, Nice 32%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Stade Brestois 29 v NiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Stade Brestois 29 win41%

Draw27%

Nice win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 8

VenueStade Francis-Le-Blé

RefereeGuillaume Paradis

Line-ups

Stade Brestois 29

4-2-3-1

Nice

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stade Brestois 29

Nice

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · the French Ligue 1

Last match: 18 Oct · the French Ligue 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Stade Brestois 29	7	+3	9
13	Nice	7	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stade Brestois 29

4-2-3-1

1 E. Selvik

70 K. Lala

29 L. Tousart

4 G. Lloris

2 B. Locko

13 J. Chotard

8 H. Magnetti

17 Mama Baldé

23 K. Doumbia

9 P. Mboup

19 L. Ajorque

Coach · Julien Lachuer

Substitutes

18 · J. Bourgault

39 · D. N´Guessan

7 · J. Nonge Boende

30 · M. Patouillet

20 · L. Zogbe

21 · Ibrahim Yayiya Kante

11 · N. Edjouma

6 · M. Diambou

32 · L. C. Laine M.

Nice

3-4-2-1

23 Y. Diouf

36 A. Seidu

55 Y. Ndayishimiye

5 Mohamed Abdelmonem

92 J. Clauss

28 A. Witsel

6 H. Boudaoui

27 N. Nkounkou

7 G. Hein

9 M. Amoura

11 E. Wahi

Coach · O. Pantaloni

Substitutes

39 · D. Coulibaly

10 · S. Diop

21 · I. Jansson

84 · H. Koutoune

35 · X. Mandza Tsiendi

41 · D. Morana

29 · N. Ngoumou

77 · T. Boulhendi

8 · M. Sanson

Our number · stade brestois 29 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market43%

Us41%

~~Market~~43%

We make Stade Brestois 29 a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stade Brestois 29 v Nice~~1.47 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~10 v 13

~~The market · Stade Brestois 29 win~~43% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stade Brestois 29 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stade Brestois 29 win	41%	43%	−2
Draw	27%	27%	0
Nice win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	55%	60%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	36%	−7
Stade Brestois 29 or draw	68%	70%	−2
Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Nice clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.2 7.7 5.2 2.2 1 9.0 12.5 7.5 3.2 2 7.0 8.8 5.5 2.3 3 3.5 4.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Brestois 29 down, Nice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,748 Ligue 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stade Brestois 29 at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nice away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Stade Brestois 29, 1.26 for Nice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NIC 2–2 STA · STA 4–1 NIC · NIC 6–0 STA · STA 0–1 NIC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 29 Aug

STADE BRESTOIS 29

DWLLWD2–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 5–1 · 1–1

NICE

LDLWWL0–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lyon	7	+8	14
2	Paris Saint Germain	7	+5	14
3	Paris FC	7	+5	14
4	Lille	7	+5	14
5	Monaco	7	+4	14
6	Rennes	7	+1	13
7	Lorient	7	+1	11
8	Lens	7	+3	10
9	Marseille	7	+4	9
10	Stade Brestois 29	7	+3	9
11	Toulouse	7	+1	9
12	Auxerre	7	−6	9
13	Nice	7	−3	8
14	Strasbourg	7	−3	7
15	Angers	7	−6	7
16	Le Mans	7	−5	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	−11	4
18	Le Havre	7	−6	2