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Stade Brestois 29 v Angers

Stade Brestois 29

5–1Full time

Angers

Ligue 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Stade Francis-Le-Blé

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Stade Brestois 29 5–1 Angers STADE BRESTOIS 29 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stade Brestois 29 win~~52%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.352

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.384

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 51 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stade Brestois 29 win at 52%.
2′Much as we predicted: Stade Brestois 29 was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
5′Much as we predicted: Stade Brestois 29 was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
12′Stade Brestois 29 ahead on 9′ through Ludovic Ajorque. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–7
14′We published Stade Brestois 29 at 52%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
16′Stade Brestois 29 ahead on 9′ through Ludovic Ajorque. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
18′We published Stade Brestois 29 at 52%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
21′Lucas Tousart scores for Stade Brestois 29 on 17′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
24′We published Stade Brestois 29 at 52%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Angers · Kenny Lala
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Stade Brestois 29 3–0 Angers · Kenny Lala
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
34′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Angers · On: Emmanuel Biumla · Off: Ousmane Camara Corrected
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Stade Brestois 29 4–0 Angers · Kenny Lala
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Stade Brestois 29 4–0 Angers · Mama Baldé
45′HALF-TIME Stade Brestois 29 4–0 Angers
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Angers · On: Lillian Rao-Lisoa · Off: Marius Louer Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Stade Brestois 29 4–0 Angers
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Stade Brestois 29 4–1 Angers · Prosper Peter
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Stade Brestois 29 5–1 Angers · Pathé Mboup
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Stade Brestois 29 5–1 Angers · Pathé Mboup
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Stade Brestois 29 win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Jordan Lefort · Angers
60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' Jordan Lefort · Angers
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Stade Brestois 29 · On: Joseph Nonge · Off: Mama Baldé Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Angers · On: Maël Gernigon · Off: Yassine Belkdim Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Angers · On: Amine El Ouazzani · Off: Prosper Peter Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stade Brestois 29 · On: Noah Edjouma · Off: Kamory Doumbia Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stade Brestois 29 · On: Mamady Diambou · Off: Joris Chotard Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Angers · On: Louis Mouton · Off: Haris Belkebla Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Stade Brestois 29 · On: Ibrahim Yayiya Kanté · Off: Pathé Mboup Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Stade Brestois 29 · On: Djylian N´Guessan · Off: Ludovic Ajorque Corrected
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Branco Van den Boomen · Angers
FTFULL TIME Stade Brestois 29 5–1 Angers
FTStade Brestois 29 5–1 Angers · Stade Brestois 29 win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Stade Brestois 29 win52%

Draw26%

Angers win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Stade Francis-Le-Blé

Referee · Eric Wattellier

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Stade Brestois 29

4-2-3-1

1 E. Selvik

70 K. Lala

29 L. Tousart

4 G. Lloris

2 B. Locko

13 J. Chotard

8 H. Magnetti

17 M. Balde

23 K. Doumbia

9 P. Mboup

19 L. Ajorque

Coach · Julien Lachuer

Substitutes

30 · M. Patouillet

18 · J. Bourgault

34 · E. Mailly

20 · L. Zogbe

7 · J. Nonge

6 · M. Diambou

11 · N. Edjouma

39 · D. N'Guessan

21 · I. Y. Kante

Angers

4-3-3

1 A. Lopes

20 M. Louer

4 O. Camara

21 J. Lefort

17 J. Kalulu

14 Y. Belkhdim

93 H. Belkebla

8 B. van den Boomen

18 J. Allevinah

9 P. Peter

10 A. Sbai

Coach · Stephane Gilli

Substitutes

40 · O. Pona

24 · E. Biumla

27 · L. Raolisoa

2 · C. Arcus

34 · M. Gernigon

6 · L. Mouton

11 · H. Djibirin

19 · A. El Ouazzani

26 · A. Bermont

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Stade Brestois 29

4-2-3-1

1 E. Selvik

70 K. Lala

29 L. Tousart

4 G. Lloris

2 B. Locko

13 J. Chotard

8 H. Magnetti

17 M. Balde

23 K. Doumbia

9 P. Mboup

19 L. Ajorque

Coach · Julien Lachuer

Substitutes

30 · M. Patouillet

18 · J. Bourgault

34 · E. Mailly

20 · L. Zogbe

7 · J. Nonge

6 · M. Diambou

11 · N. Edjouma

39 · D. N'Guessan

21 · I. Y. Kante

Angers

4-3-3

1 A. Lopes

20 M. Louer

4 O. Camara

21 J. Lefort

17 J. Kalulu

14 Y. Belkhdim

93 H. Belkebla

8 B. van den Boomen

18 J. Allevinah

9 P. Peter

10 A. Sbai

Coach · Stephane Gilli

Substitutes

40 · O. Pona

24 · E. Biumla

27 · L. Raolisoa

2 · C. Arcus

34 · M. Gernigon

6 · L. Mouton

11 · H. Djibirin

19 · A. El Ouazzani

26 · A. Bermont

Our number · stade brestois 29 winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

52% The market49%

Us52%

~~Market~~49%

We make Stade Brestois 29 a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · stade brestois 29 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stade Brestois 29 win	52%	49%	+2
Draw	26%	26%	0
Angers win	22%	25%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	56%	−8
Both teams to score	51%	59%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	36%	−9
Stade Brestois 29 or draw	78%	75%	+3
Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet	37%	–	–
Angers clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.1 6.6 3.6 1 11.3 12.3 5.8 2 9.7 9.4 4.7 3 5.3 5.1 2.5 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Brestois 29 down, Angers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,731 Ligue 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.38 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Angers away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Stade Brestois 29, 0.99 for Angers. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 19:20. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~STA 1–1 ANG · ANG 0–2 STA · STA 2–0 ANG · ANG 2–0 STA

Form · last six in Ligue 1

STADE BRESTOIS 29

DDDWLL1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

ANGERS

DLWLDW1–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monaco	5	+5	13
2	Lyon	6	+7	11
3	Paris FC	5	+5	11
4	Lille	5	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	−1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	+1	8
7	Lens	6	+1	7
8	Angers	5	+1	7
9	Strasbourg	5	0	7
10	Le Mans	5	0	6
11	Auxerre	5	−5	6
12	Stade Brestois 29	5	−1	5
13	Lorient	5	−1	5
14	Toulouse	5	−2	5
15	Nice	5	−3	5
16	Estac Troyes	5	−7	4
17	Marseille	5	−1	3
18	Le Havre	5	−3	2