Rennes v Auxerre prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Rennes 4–1 Auxerre RENNES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rennes win~~56%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.291

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.166

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rennes win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rennes 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–21
1′KICK-OFF Rennes v Auxerre
2′Little has changed for our model: Rennes 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
6′Little has changed for our model: Rennes 56% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–23–21
14′We said Rennes at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
14′Esteban Lepaul scores for Rennes on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Rennes 1–0 Auxerre
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Rennes win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Rennes win: 56% at kick-off, 54% now
14′⚽ GOAL · 15' Rennes 1–0 Auxerre
16′Esteban Lepaul scores for Rennes on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
18′We said Rennes at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Rennes 1–1 Auxerre · Esteban Lepaul
24′⚽ GOAL · 25' Rennes 1–1 Auxerre · Cameron Archer (assist Mamadou Diop)
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Rennes win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
45′SECOND HALF Rennes 1–1 Auxerre
49′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Anthony Rouault · Rennes
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Rennes 2–1 Auxerre · Cameron Archer
52′⚽ GOAL · 53' Rennes 2–1 Auxerre · Adrien Thomasson
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Adrien Thomasson · Rennes
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rennes · On: Djaoui Cissé · Off: Adrien Thomasson
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rennes · On: Eliezer Mayenda · Off: Mousa Al-Tamari
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Auxerre · On: Elikya Legros · Off: Clément Akpa
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Auxerre · On: Remy Labeau Lascary · Off: Danny Namaso
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Auxerre · On: Pierre Ekwah · Off: Naouirou Ahamada
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rennes · On: Boulaye Dia · Off: Esteban Lepaul
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rennes · On: Ludovic Blas · Off: Issa Soumaré
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rennes · On: Ludovic Blas · Off: Issa Soumaré
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Auxerre · On: Aristide Zossou · Off: Arthur Piedfort
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Rennes · On: Przemysław Frankowski · Off: Mahamadou Nagida
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Auxerre · On: Youssef Khoudda · Off: Romain Faivre
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Djaoui Cissé · Rennes
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Rennes 3–1 Auxerre · Adrien Thomasson
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Rennes 3–1 Auxerre · Boulaye Dia
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Rennes 4–1 Auxerre · Boulaye Dia
93′⚽ GOAL · 94' Rennes 4–1 Auxerre · Boulaye Dia
FTFULL TIME Rennes 4–1 Auxerre
FTRennes 4–1 Auxerre · Rennes win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Rennes win56%

Draw23%

Auxerre win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:15

VenueRoazhon Park

RefereeWilly Delajod

Line-ups

Rennes

4-3-3

Auxerre

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rennes

Auxerre

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Rennes	5	−1	10
14	Auxerre	5	−5	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Auxerre predicted XI v Rennes: Cameron Archer to lead the lineGet French Football News · 6 hours ago · Auxerre, Rennes, Southampton Rennes predicted XI v Auxerre: Franck Haise has full squad to pick fromGet French Football News · 6 hours ago · Rennes, Auxerre

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rennes

4-3-3

30 B. Samba

14 B. Reynolds

4 C. Cresswell

24 A. Rouault

18 M. Nagida

28 A. Thomasson

21 V. Rongier

45 M. Camara

11 M. Tamari

9 E. Lepaul

90 I. Soumare

Coach · Franck Haise

Substitutes

16 · N. Lemaitre

48 · A. Ait Boudlal

95 · P. Frankowski

17 · S. Szymanski

6 · D. Cisse

10 · L. Blas

22 · B. Dia

12 · E. Mayenda

65 · H. Do Marcolino

Auxerre

3-4-2-1

23 M. Diop

46 A. Piedfort

4 A. Tuanzebe

92 C. Akpa

27 L. Sy

8 N. Ahamada

5 K. Danois

22 F. Oppegard

21 R. Faivre

10 D. Namaso

9 C. Archer

Coach · Christophe Pelissier

Substitutes

1 · P. Nardi

20 · S. Diomande

35 · E. Legros

45 · S. Danfakha

17 · P. Ekwah

34 · L. Dioubate

77 · A. Zossou

3 · R. Labeau Lascary

47 · Y. Khoudda

Our number · rennes winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

56% The market67%

Us56%

~~Market~~67%

We make Rennes a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rennes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 67% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rennes win	56%	67%	−11
Draw	23%	19%	+4
Auxerre win	21%	14%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	57%	64%	−7
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	44%	−9
Rennes or draw	79%	86%	−7
Rennes clean sheet	34%	–	–
Auxerre clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.6 5.0 3.0 1 9.1 10.8 5.6 2.1 2 9.1 9.7 5.3 3 5.8 6.2 3.4 4 2.8 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rennes down, Auxerre across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,736 Ligue 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rennes at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Auxerre away: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Rennes, 1.09 for Auxerre. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 16:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~AUX 0–3 REN · REN 2–2 AUX · REN 0–1 AUX · AUX 4–0 REN

Form · last six in Ligue 1

RENNES

LDWWWL1–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–4

AUXERRE

WLLLWW2–0 · 2–5 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monaco	6	+5	14
2	Lille	6	+5	13
3	Lyon	6	+7	11
4	Paris FC	6	+4	11
5	Paris Saint Germain	6	+3	11
6	Rennes	5	−1	10
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	+3	8
8	Lorient	6	0	8
9	Lens	6	+1	7
10	Strasbourg	5	0	7
11	Angers	6	−3	7
12	Le Mans	6	−2	6
13	Toulouse	6	−2	6
14	Auxerre	5	−5	6
15	Nice	5	−3	5
16	Estac Troyes	5	−7	4
17	Marseille	5	−1	3
18	Le Havre	6	−4	2