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Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans

Paris Saint Germain

3–1Full time

Le Mans

Ligue 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Parc des Princes

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Le Mans PARIS SAINT GERMAIN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paris Saint Germain win~~74%

~~The market said~~85%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.106

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.034

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Paris Saint Germain win at 74%.
2′Much as we predicted: Paris Saint Germain was 74% before kick-off and our model makes it 74% now. 0–0 · 74–15–11
5′Much as we predicted: Paris Saint Germain was 74% before kick-off and our model makes it 74% now. 0–0 · 74–15–11
21′Paris Saint Germain ahead on 19′ through Lucas Beraldo. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
24′We published Paris Saint Germain at 74%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–3
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Paris Saint Germain win: 74% at kick-off, 70% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Paris Saint Germain win: 74% at kick-off, 88% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Paris Saint Germain win: 74% at kick-off, 70% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Paris Saint Germain win: 74% at kick-off, 88% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 88–9–3
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Paris Saint Germain win: 74% at kick-off, 70% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Paris Saint Germain win: 74% at kick-off, 88% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Paris Saint Germain win: 74% at kick-off, 70% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Paris Saint Germain win: 74% at kick-off, 88% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Paris Saint Germain win: 74% at kick-off, 70% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Paris Saint Germain win: 74% at kick-off, 88% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Paris Saint Germain win: 74% at kick-off, 88% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Paris Saint Germain win: 74% at kick-off, 70% now
45′HALF-TIME Paris Saint Germain 1–0 Le Mans
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Le Mans · On: Dame Gueye · Off: Habib Diallo
46′SECOND HALF Paris Saint Germain 1–0 Le Mans
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Dame Gueye · Le Mans
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Le Mans · Lucas Beraldo
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Le Mans · Lucas Beraldo
57′⚽ GOAL · 54' Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Le Mans · Louis Mafouta
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Paris Saint Germain · On: Warren Zaire-Emery · Off: João Neves
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Paris Saint Germain · On: Fabián Ruiz · Off: Dro Fernández
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Paris Saint Germain · On: Vitinha · Off: Lucas Beraldo
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Paris Saint Germain · On: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · Off: Mika Godts
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Le Mans · Louis Mafouta
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Le Mans · Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Louis Mafouta · Le Mans
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Le Mans · On: Bilal Brahimi · Off: Jean Vercruysse
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Le Mans · Maghnes Akliouche
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Le Mans · Maghnes Akliouche
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Paris Saint Germain · On: Désiré Doue · Off: Achraf Hakimi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Le Mans · On: William Harhouz · Off: Louis Mafouta
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Le Mans · On: Antoine Rabillard · Off: Alexandre Lauray
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Le Mans · On: Yasser Larouci · Off: Lucas Calodat
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Bilal Brahimi · Le Mans
90′PENALTY MISSED · 93' Désiré Doue · Paris Saint Germain
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Noa Boissé · Le Mans
90′PENALTY · 95' Paris Saint Germain
FTFULL TIME Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Le Mans
FTParis Saint Germain 3–1 Le Mans · Paris Saint Germain win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Paris Saint Germain win74%

Draw16%

Le Mans win11%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Le Mans predicted XI v PSG: Patrick Videira deprived of in-form Adil BourabaaGet French Football News · 6 hours ago · Le Mans, Paris Saint Germain PSG predicted XI v Le Mans: Ousmane Dembélé out, Mika Godts to startGet French Football News · 7 hours ago · Paris Saint Germain, Le Mans, Mika Lucas Chevalier could leave PSG in JanuaryGet French Football News · 1 day ago · Paris Saint Germain Guardiola set to attend Man City v PSG next weekBBC Sport · 2 days ago · Manchester City, Paris Saint Germain

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Parc des Princes

Referee · Mathieu Vernice

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Paris Saint Germain

4-3-3

39 M. Safonov

2 A. Hakimi

6 I. Zabarnyi

21 L. Hernandez

12 L. Digne

27 D. Fernandez

4 L. Beraldo

87 J. Neves

11 M. Akliouche

9 F. Torres

22 M. Godts

Coach · Enrique Luis

Substitutes

30 · L. Chevalier

5 · Marquinhos

51 · W. Pacho

8 · F. Ruiz

17 · Vitinha

33 · W. Zaire-Emery

7 · K. Kvaratskhelia

14 · D. Doue

47 · Q. Ndjantou

Le Mans

3-1-4-2

98 N. Kocik

15 N. Boisse

17 S. Yohou

5 H. Voyer

8 A. Lauray

26 R. Bamba

29 L. Bretelle

10 J. Vercruysse

22 L. Calodat

13 H. Diallo

14 L. Mafouta

Coach · Patrick Videira

Substitutes

1 · E. Hatfout

76 · Y. Larouci

16 · R. Torrente

18 · L. Buades

23 · D. Traore

25 · D. Gueye

20 · W. Harhouz

9 · A. Rabillard

7 · B. Brahimi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Paris Saint Germain

4-3-3

39 M. Safonov

2 A. Hakimi

6 I. Zabarnyi

21 L. Hernandez

12 L. Digne

27 D. Fernandez

4 L. Beraldo

87 J. Neves

11 M. Akliouche

9 F. Torres

22 M. Godts

Coach · Enrique Luis

Substitutes

30 · L. Chevalier

5 · Marquinhos

51 · W. Pacho

8 · F. Ruiz

17 · Vitinha

33 · W. Zaire-Emery

7 · K. Kvaratskhelia

14 · D. Doue

47 · Q. Ndjantou

Le Mans

3-1-4-2

98 N. Kocik

15 N. Boisse

17 S. Yohou

5 H. Voyer

8 A. Lauray

26 R. Bamba

29 L. Bretelle

10 J. Vercruysse

22 L. Calodat

13 H. Diallo

14 L. Mafouta

Coach · Patrick Videira

Substitutes

1 · E. Hatfout

76 · Y. Larouci

16 · R. Torrente

18 · L. Buades

23 · D. Traore

25 · D. Gueye

20 · W. Harhouz

9 · A. Rabillard

7 · B. Brahimi

Our number · paris saint germain winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

74% The market85%

Us74%

~~Market~~85%

We make Paris Saint Germain a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 85%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · paris saint germain win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 89% to 85% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paris Saint Germain win	74%	85%	−12
Draw	16%	10%	+6
Le Mans win	11%	5%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	71%	75%	−4
Both teams to score	58%	49%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	88%	89%	0
Over 3.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Paris Saint Germain or draw	89%	95%	−6
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet	38%	–	–
Le Mans clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.0%

0123450 3.0 2.2 1 6.5 6.9 3.2 2 9.0 8.6 4.2 3 8.2 7.7 3.8 4 5.7 5.3 2.6 5 3.3 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Paris Saint Germain down, Le Mans across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,731 Ligue 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Paris Saint Germain at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Le Mans away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

2.77 goals for Paris Saint Germain, 0.97 for Le Mans. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 19:20. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Ligue 1

PARIS SAINT GERMAIN

LDDLWW1–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

LE MANS

DLDDW2–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monaco	5	+5	13
2	Lyon	6	+7	11
3	Paris FC	5	+5	11
4	Lille	5	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	−1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	+1	8
7	Lens	6	+1	7
8	Angers	5	+1	7
9	Strasbourg	5	0	7
10	Le Mans	5	0	6
11	Auxerre	5	−5	6
12	Stade Brestois 29	5	−1	5
13	Lorient	5	−1	5
14	Toulouse	5	−2	5
15	Nice	5	−3	5
16	Estac Troyes	5	−7	4
17	Marseille	5	−1	3
18	Le Havre	5	−3	2