Nice v Strasbourg prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Nice 2–1 Strasbourg NICE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nice win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.541

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.522

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nice win at 40%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Nice 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
1′Little has changed for our model: Nice 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
1′KICK-OFF Nice v Strasbourg
2′⚽ GOAL · 3' Nice 0–0 Strasbourg
5′3′ and it is 0–0: Nice have scored. 0–0 · 40–26–34
7′3′ and it is 0–0: Nice have scored. 0–0 · 40–27–34
40′41′ and it is 0–1: Dario Essugo on the scoresheet for Strasbourg. 0–1 · 11–23–66
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Nice 0–1 Strasbourg
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' Nice 0–1 Strasbourg · Dario Essugo
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Nice win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Strasbourg win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Nice win 11%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Nice win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
41′41′ and it is 0–1: Dario Essugo on the scoresheet for Strasbourg. 0–1 · 11–23–66
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Nice win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Nice win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
42′We said Nice at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–23–66
44′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 10–23–67
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Nice win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Nice win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Nice win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′SECOND HALF Nice 1–1 Strasbourg
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Nice win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Nice win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Strasbourg win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Nice win 11%)
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Nice 1–1 Strasbourg · Dario Essugo
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Nice win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Strasbourg win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Nice win 11%)
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Nice 1–1 Strasbourg · Pape Demba Diop
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Joaquín Martínez Gauna · Strasbourg
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Strasbourg · On: Jacobo Ortega · Off: Conrad Harder Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Strasbourg · On: Giovanni Reyna · Off: Diogo Sousa Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Strasbourg · On: Samir El-Mourabet · Off: Dario Essugo Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Strasbourg · On: Fábio Baldé · Off: Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Nice · On: Sofiane Diop · Off: Sepe Elye Wahi Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Strasbourg · On: Lucas Høgsberg · Off: Jeyland Mitchell Corrected
76′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Sofiane Diop · Nice
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Nice 2–1 Strasbourg · Pape Demba Diop
80′⚽ GOAL · 81' Nice 2–1 Strasbourg · Jonathan Clauss
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Nice · On: Everton Pereira · Off: Axel Witsel Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Nice · On: Isak Jansson · Off: Gauthier Hein Corrected
FTFULL TIME Nice 2–1 Strasbourg
FTNice 2–1 Strasbourg · Nice win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Nice win40%

Draw26%

Strasbourg win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueAllianz Riviera

RefereeJeremie Pignard

Line-ups

Nice

3-4-2-1

Strasbourg

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nice

Strasbourg

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Strasbourg	5	0	7
15	Nice	5	−3	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Marseille predicted XI v Strasbourg: Bruno Genesio contends with big-name absencesGet French Football News · 4 hours ago · Marseille, Strasbourg Strasbourg predicted XI v OGC Nice: Ismael Doukouré and Martial Godo outGet French Football News · 4 hours ago · Strasbourg, Nice OGC Nice predicted XI v Strasbourg: No fresh injury concerns for Olivier PantaloniGet French Football News · 4 hours ago · Nice, Strasbourg

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Nice

3-4-2-1

23 Y. Diouf

5 M. Abdelmonem

55 Y. Ndayishimiye

35 X. Mandza Tsiendi

92 J. Clauss

39 D. Coulibaly

28 A. Witsel

27 N. Nkounkou

7 G. Hein

9 M. Amoura

11 E. Wahi

Coach · Olivier Pantaloni

Substitutes

77 · T. Boulhendi

36 · A. Seidu

84 · H. Koutoune

6 · H. Boudaoui

87 · E. Pereira

38 · A. Camara

10 · S. Diop

21 · I. Jansson

41 · D. Morana

Strasbourg

4-3-3

1 F. Jorgensen

16 G. Antwi

4 J. Mitchell

31 K. Coulibaly

36 Oso

23 D. Sousa

21 P. Demba

14 D. Essugo

7 S. Amo-Ameyaw

40 C. Harder

80 G. Yassine

Coach · Hugo Oliveira

Substitutes

12 · M. Piekutowski

24 · L. Hogsberg

43 · Y. Becker

10 · G. Reyna

35 · Y. Dieme

29 · S. El Mourabet

28 · T. Noubissie

19 · F. Balde

30 · J. Ortega

Our number · nice winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Nice a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nice win	40%	41%	−1
Draw	26%	26%	0
Strasbourg win	34%	33%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	60%	−7
Both teams to score	57%	63%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	80%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	39%	−9
Nice or draw	66%	67%	−1
Nice clean sheet	27%	–	–
Strasbourg clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 6.9 7.6 5.4 2.4 1 8.5 12.4 7.8 3.5 2 6.6 8.6 5.7 2.5 3 3.2 4.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nice down, Strasbourg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,736 Ligue 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nice at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Strasbourg away: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Nice, 1.32 for Strasbourg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STR 3–1 NIC · NIC 1–1 STR · STR 2–2 NIC · NIC 2–1 STR

Form · last six in Ligue 1

NICE

WDLDLW4–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

STRASBOURG

WLWWDL5–4 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 6–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monaco	6	+5	14
2	Lille	6	+5	13
3	Lyon	6	+7	11
4	Paris FC	6	+4	11
5	Paris Saint Germain	6	+3	11
6	Rennes	5	−1	10
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	+3	8
8	Lorient	6	0	8
9	Lens	6	+1	7
10	Strasbourg	5	0	7
11	Angers	6	−3	7
12	Le Mans	6	−2	6
13	Toulouse	6	−2	6
14	Auxerre	5	−5	6
15	Nice	5	−3	5
16	Estac Troyes	5	−7	4
17	Marseille	5	−1	3
18	Le Havre	6	−4	2