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Monaco v Toulouse

Monaco

2–2Full time

Toulouse

Ligue 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Stade Louis II

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Monaco 2–2 Toulouse MONACO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monaco win~~54%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.938

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.974

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Monaco win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Monaco was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
1′KICK-OFF Monaco v Toulouse
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Monaco 1–0 Toulouse
28′⚽ GOAL · 29' Monaco 1–0 Toulouse
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Monaco 2–0 Toulouse · Edan Diop
37′⚽ GOAL · 38' Monaco 2–0 Toulouse · Matthis Abline
45′SECOND HALF Monaco 2–0 Toulouse
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Toulouse · On: Sion Oppong · Off: Jacen Russell-Rowe Corrected
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Flavio Nazinho · Monaco
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Monaco 2–1 Toulouse · Matthis Abline
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Monaco 2–1 Toulouse · Casper Tengstedt
50′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Monaco · On: Safouane Benzahra · Off: Denis Zakaria Corrected
53′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Aleksandr Golovin · Monaco
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Monaco · On: Folarin Balogun · Off: Mathys Detourbet Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Monaco · On: Stanis Idumbo · Off: Edan Diop Corrected
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Monaco 2–2 Toulouse · Casper Tengstedt
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Monaco 2–2 Toulouse · Sion Oppong
69′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Cristian Casseres · Toulouse
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Toulouse · On: Niko Sigur · Off: Ilyas Azizi Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Monaco · On: Jordan Teze · Off: Vanderson Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Monaco · On: Ansu Fati · Off: Matthis Abline Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Toulouse · On: Ismaïl Diallo · Off: Rafik Messali Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Toulouse · On: Santiago Hidalgo · Off: Casper Tengstedt Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Toulouse · On: Aron Dønnum · Off: Alexis Vossah Corrected
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Sion Oppong · Toulouse
FTFULL TIME Monaco 2–2 Toulouse
FTMonaco 2–2 Toulouse · Monaco win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Monaco win54%

Draw23%

Toulouse win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

EXCLUSIVE | Mark Hateley on Monaco: “Filipe Luís has knocked it out of the park”Get French Football News · 8 hours ago · Monaco Clean bill of health at AS Monaco ahead of Ligue 1 returnGet French Football News · 1 day ago · Monaco

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Stade Louis II

Referee · Ruddy Buquet

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Monaco

4-2-3-1

1 L. Hradecky

2 Vanderson

72 S. Sane

15 E. Dier

20 Nazinho

8 L. Camara

6 D. Zakaria

37 E. Diop

10 A. Golovin

7 M. Detourbet

11 M. Abline

Coach · Luis Filipe

Substitutes

16 · P. Kohn

4 · J. Teze

13 · C. Mawissa

22 · M. Salisu

17 · S. Idumbo

46 · A. Soubeir

47 · S. Benzahra

9 · F. Balogun

31 · A. Fati

Toulouse

4-2-3-1

16 G. Restes

22 R. Messali

5 S. Koumbassa

3 M. McKenzie

12 C. Tape

23 C. Casseres

6 A. Vossah

8 T. Jorgensen

20 C. Tengstedt

37 I. Azizi

13 J. Russell-Rowe

Coach · Jens Askou

Substitutes

60 · M. Niflore

94 · I. Diallo

19 · D. Odogu

15 · A. Donnum

18 · M. Amougou

14 · N. Sigur

31 · N. Schmidt

9 · S. Hidalgo

11 · S. Oppong

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Monaco

4-2-3-1

1 L. Hradecky

2 Vanderson

72 S. Sane

15 E. Dier

20 Nazinho

8 L. Camara

6 D. Zakaria

37 E. Diop

10 A. Golovin

7 M. Detourbet

11 M. Abline

Coach · Luis Filipe

Substitutes

16 · P. Kohn

4 · J. Teze

13 · C. Mawissa

22 · M. Salisu

17 · S. Idumbo

46 · A. Soubeir

47 · S. Benzahra

9 · F. Balogun

31 · A. Fati

Toulouse

4-2-3-1

16 G. Restes

22 R. Messali

5 S. Koumbassa

3 M. McKenzie

12 C. Tape

23 C. Casseres

6 A. Vossah

8 T. Jorgensen

20 C. Tengstedt

37 I. Azizi

13 J. Russell-Rowe

Coach · Jens Askou

Substitutes

60 · M. Niflore

94 · I. Diallo

19 · D. Odogu

15 · A. Donnum

18 · M. Amougou

14 · N. Sigur

31 · N. Schmidt

9 · S. Hidalgo

11 · S. Oppong

Our number · monaco winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

54% The market58%

Us54%

~~Market~~58%

We make Monaco a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · monaco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monaco win	54%	58%	−4
Draw	23%	23%	0
Toulouse win	22%	19%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	39%	−1
Monaco or draw	78%	81%	−3
Monaco clean sheet	31%	–	–
Toulouse clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.2 4.8 3.1 1 8.2 10.7 5.9 2.3 2 8.4 9.7 5.7 2.2 3 5.4 6.2 3.6 4 2.6 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monaco down, Toulouse across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,731 Ligue 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monaco at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Toulouse away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Monaco, 1.17 for Toulouse. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 19:20. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~TOU 2–2 MON · MON 1–0 TOU · TOU 1–1 MON · MON 2–0 TOU

Form · last six in Ligue 1

MONACO

LWWWDW4–5 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

TOULOUSE

WLDLDW2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monaco	5	+5	13
2	Lyon	6	+7	11
3	Paris FC	5	+5	11
4	Lille	5	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	−1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	+1	8
7	Lens	6	+1	7
8	Angers	5	+1	7
9	Strasbourg	5	0	7
10	Le Mans	5	0	6
11	Auxerre	5	−5	6
12	Stade Brestois 29	5	−1	5
13	Lorient	5	−1	5
14	Toulouse	5	−2	5
15	Nice	5	−3	5
16	Estac Troyes	5	−7	4
17	Marseille	5	−1	3
18	Le Havre	5	−3	2