Monaco v Lille
MonacoLilleLigue 1 · SUN 25 OCT · Stade Louis II
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Monaco are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Monaco 43%, draw 26%, Lille 31%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Monaco win43%Lille win31%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00
RoundMatchday 8
VenueStade Louis II
RefereeFrancois Letexier
Match timeline
All events
MonacoMINLilleEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Monaco
Lille
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League
Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lille | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | +4 | 14 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Monaco a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco win | 43% | 48% | −5 |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | −2 |
| Lille win | 31% | 24% | +7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 33% | −3 |
| Monaco or draw | 69% | 76% | −7 |
| Monaco clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
| Lille clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 28 Aug
MONACO
LILLE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 | Lille | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 8 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Lens | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Rennes | 7 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 |  Lorient | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Nice | 8 | −2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 7 | −6 | 9 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | −3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers | 7 | −6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | −5 | 6 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 7 | −11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | −6 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.