Marseille v Le Havre
MarseilleLe HavreLigue 1 · SUN 25 OCT · Orange Vélodrome
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Marseille are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Marseille 64%, draw 21%, Le Havre 15%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Marseille win64%Le Havre win15%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:15
RoundMatchday 8
VenueOrange Vélodrome
RefereeClement Turpin
Match timeline
All events
MarseilleMINLe HavreEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Marseille
Le Havre
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
Last match: 18 Oct · the French Ligue 1
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | −6 | 2 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Marseille a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille win | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 0 |
| Le Havre win | 15% | 18% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 62% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 82% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 41% | −5 |
| Marseille or draw | 85% | 82% | +3 |
| Marseille clean sheet | 40% | – | – |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 29 Aug
MARSEILLE
LE HAVRE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 |  Lille | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 8 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Monaco | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Lens | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Rennes | 7 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 |  Lorient | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Nice | 8 | −2 | 11 |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 7 | −6 | 9 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | −3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers | 7 | −6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | −5 | 6 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 7 | −11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | −6 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.