Lyon v Nice prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:30

Lyon 2–1 Nice LYON WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lyon win~~51%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.363

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.355

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lyon win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lyon was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
1′KICK-OFF Lyon v Nice
11′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Niels Nkounkou · Nice
18′18′: Sepe Elye Wahi on the scoresheet for Nice, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 23–25–52
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Lyon 0–1 Nice · Sepe Elye Wahi
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Lyon win: 51% at kick-off, 23% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Nice win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Lyon win 23%)
19′We said Lyon at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–25–53
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Lyon win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
30′We said Lyon at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 19–26–55
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Lyon 1–1 Nice
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Lyon win: 51% at kick-off, 44% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Lyon win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Nice win 23%)
34′Lyon level it on 33′ through Pavel Šulc. 1–1. 1–1 · 44–33–23
37′Pavel Šulc scores for Lyon on 32′. 2–1 · 77–17–6
37′We published Lyon at 51%. Our model now makes it 77%. 2–1 · 77–17–6
37′Tanner Tessmann scores for Lyon on 36′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 77–17–6
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Lyon 2–1 Nice
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Lyon win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
38′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 77–17–6
45′HALF-TIME Lyon 2–1 Nice
45′SECOND HALF Lyon 2–1 Nice
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Mohamed Abdelmoneim · Nice
55′We published Lyon at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Lyon win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Lyon · On: Corentin Tolisso · Off: Noah Teye Nartey
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Lyon · On: Keito Nakamura · Off: Julien Duranville
70′We published Lyon at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
70′🟥 RED CARD · 70' Lyon
71′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Mohamed Amoura · Nice
72′A red card for Lyon on 70′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 85–13–2
79′We published Lyon at 51%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Lyon win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lyon · On: Felix Bacher · Off: Kail Boudache
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Nice · On: Alidu Seidu · Off: Mohamed Abdelmoneim
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lyon · On: Khalis Merah · Off: Pavel Šulc
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lyon · On: Ruben Kluivert · Off: Abner Vinicius
87′We published Lyon at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Nice · On: Sofiane Diop · Off: Xavier Mandza
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Nice · On: Morgan Sanson · Off: Axel Witsel
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Nice · On: Isak Jansson · Off: Gauthier Hein
94′We said Lyon at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–2 · 2–97–1
94′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 2–97–1
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Lyon 2–2 Nice
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Lyon win: 51% at kick-off, 2% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Lyon win 2%)
95′Sepe Elye Wahi scores for Nice on 90′. 2–1 · 99–1–0
96′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+3' Sepe Elye Wahi · Nice
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Sepe Elye Wahi · Nice
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+6' Lyon win: 51% at kick-off, 99% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Lyon win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
FTFULL TIME Lyon 2–1 Nice
FTLyon 2–1 Nice · Lyon win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lyon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lyon 51%, draw 25%, Nice 24%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Lyon v NiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lyon win51%

Draw25%

Nice win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenueGroupama Stadium

RefereeFrancois Letexier

Line-ups

Lyon

4-2-3-1

Nice

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lyon

Nice

3Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 11 Oct · the French Ligue 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Lyon	6	+7	11
12	Nice	6	−2	8

In the news

from the pressAll ›

OGC Nice predicted XI v Lyon: No fresh injury issues for Olivier Pantaloni to contend withGet French Football News · 18 Oct 09:37 · Lyon Lyon predicted XI v OGC Nice: Tyler Morton to drop to benchGet French Football News · 18 Oct 09:26 · Lyon, Morton

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lyon

4-2-3-1

40 R. Descamps

13 Z. Athekame

22 C. Mata

19 M. Niakhate

16 Abner Vinicius

6 T. Tessmann

2 M. Bidstrup

26 K. Boudache

99 N. Nartey

24 J. Duranville

10 P. Sulc

Coach · Paulo Fonseca

Substitutes

1 · D. Greif

20 · F. Bacher

21 · R. Kluivert

8 · C. Tolisso

23 · T. Morton

18 · K. Merah

11 · K. Nakamura

7 · E. Nuamah

45 · R. Himbert

Nice

3-4-2-1

23 Y. Diouf

5 M. Abdelmonem

55 Y. Ndayishimiye

35 X. Mandza Tsiendi

92 J. Clauss

28 A. Witsel

6 H. Boudaoui

27 N. Nkounkou

7 G. Hein

9 M. Amoura

11 E. Wahi

Coach · Olivier Pantaloni

Substitutes

77 · T. Boulhendi

36 · A. Seidu

84 · H. Koutoune

8 · M. Sanson

29 · N. Ngoumou

39 · D. Coulibaly

10 · S. Diop

21 · I. Jansson

41 · D. Morana

Our number · lyon winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market51%

Us51%

~~Market~~51%

We make Lyon a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lyon v Nice~~1.70 – 1.10

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~5 v 12

~~The market · Lyon win~~51% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lyon win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lyon win	51%	51%	0
Draw	25%	25%	0
Nice win	24%	24%	0
Over 2.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Lyon or draw	76%	76%	0
Lyon clean sheet	34%	–	–
Nice clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.8 6.2 3.7 1 9.8 11.9 6.2 2.3 2 8.8 9.5 5.2 3 5.0 5.4 3.0 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lyon down, Nice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,743 Ligue 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.1% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lyon at home: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nice away: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Lyon, 1.10 for Nice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LYO 2–0 NIC · NIC 3–2 LYO · NIC 0–2 LYO · LYO 4–1 NIC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

LYON

WDWDWL2–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 1–2

NICE

DLDLWW0–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paris Saint Germain	7	+5	14
2	Lille	7	+5	14
3	Monaco	6	+5	14
4	Rennes	6	+2	13
5	Lyon	6	+7	11
6	Paris FC	6	+4	11
7	Lens	7	+3	10
8	Marseille	7	+4	9
9	Stade Brestois 29	7	+3	9
10	Toulouse	7	+1	9
11	Lorient	6	0	8
12	Nice	6	−2	8
13	Strasbourg	7	−3	7
14	Angers	7	−6	7
15	Le Mans	7	−5	6
16	Auxerre	6	−8	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	−11	4
18	Le Havre	6	−4	2