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Model 1.2

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Lyon v Angers

Lyon
19:45Upcoming
Angers

Ligue 1 · SAT 31 OCT · Groupama Stadium

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LyonDrawAngers
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45
Before kick-off · Match result · Lyon 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lyon are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lyon 64%, draw 21%, Angers 15%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Lyon v AngersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Lyon win64%
Draw21%
Angers win15%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 9

VenueGroupama Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lyon

Angers

9Days since last match13

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 18 Oct · the French Ligue 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Lyon7+814
15Angers7−67

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lyon winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off
64% The market68%
Us64%
Market68%

We make Lyon a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lyon v Angers2.06 – 0.87
Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 29 AugW3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 14 v 71 v 15
The market · Lyon win68% · ours 64%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70% 25 OCT 01:4525 OCT 07:06
Our probability · Lyon win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lyon win64%68%−4
Draw21%19%+2
Angers win15%13%+2
Over 2.5 goals56%61%−5
Both teams to score51%53%−2
Over 1.5 goals79%80%−1
Over 3.5 goals34%39%−5
Lyon or draw85%87%−2
Lyon clean sheet42%––
Angers clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.3%
0123450 5.9 4.3 2.0 1 10.6 9.9 4.1 2 11.3 9.7 4.2 3 7.8 6.7 2.9 4 4.1 3.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lyon down, Angers across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.88
Over 2.55 of 8
Both scored2 of 8
Last meetingsANG 0–0 LYO · LYO 1–0 ANG · LYO 2–0 ANG · ANG 0–3 LYO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 29 Aug

LYON

DWDWLW1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

ANGERS

WLDWLL3–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–5 · 2–5

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Lyon7+814
2Paris Saint Germain7+514
3Lille7+514
4Paris FC8+414
5Monaco7+414
6Lens8+413
7Rennes7+113
8Lorient7+111
9Nice8−211
10Marseille7+49
11Stade Brestois 298+29
12Toulouse7+19
13Auxerre7−69
14Strasbourg7−37
15Angers7−67
16Le Mans7−56
17Estac Troyes7−114
18Le Havre7−62

The competition's standings before kick-off.