Home › Football › Ligue 1 › Lorient v Paris FC

Lorient v Paris FC

Lorient

1–0Full time

Paris FC

Ligue 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Stade du Moustoir

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Lorient 1–0 Paris FC LORIENT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lorient win~~38%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.579

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.820

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lorient win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lorient 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–26–36
1′KICK-OFF Lorient v Paris FC
4′Little has changed for our model: Lorient 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
45′HALF-TIME Lorient 0–0 Paris FC
45′SECOND HALF Lorient 0–0 Paris FC
54′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Lassine Sinayoko · Paris FC
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Samir Chergui · Paris FC
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Hamari Traore · Paris FC
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Paris FC · On: Rudy Matondo · Off: Adama Camara
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Paris FC · On: Patrick Zabi · Off: Ilan Kebbal
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Paris FC · On: Otavio · Off: Samir Chergui
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Lorient · On: Gabin Bernardeau · Off: Isak Jensen
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Lorient 1–0 Paris FC
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Lorient 1–0 Paris FC · Gabin Bernardeau
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Montassar Talbi · Lorient
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Patrick Zabi · Paris FC
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Paris FC · On: Omar Sissoko · Off: Pierre Lees Melou
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lorient · On: Arthur Avom · Off: Alec Georgen
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Paris FC · On: Jean-Philippe Krasso · Off: Lassine Sinayoko
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Lorient · On: Nosa Edward Obaretin · Off: Isaak Touré
93′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Maxime López · Paris FC
96′🟨 YELLOW · 96' A. Dujeux · Lorient
FTFULL TIME Lorient 1–0 Paris FC
FTLorient 1–0 Paris FC · Lorient win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Lorient win38%

Draw27%

Paris FC win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Rudy Matondo set for Paris FC contract extensionGet French Football News · 6 hours ago · Paris FC Official | Malian wing-back Adama Camara extends Paris FC contractGet French Football News · 1 day ago · Paris FC

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Stade du Moustoir

Referee · Jerome Brisard

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Lorient

3-4-2-1

38 Y. Mvogo

32 N. Adjei

3 M. Talbi

95 I. Toure

20 D. Sylla

8 N. Cadiou

2 A. Georgen

43 A. Kouassi

17 J. Makengo

10 I. Jensen

42 M. Kone

Coach · Alexandre Dujeux

Substitutes

21 · B. Kamara

55 · N. Obaretin

30 · S. Kuzmic

62 · A. Avom

11 · T. Le Bris

33 · G. Bernardeau

19 · S. Faye

18 · I. Balde

31 · S. Haribou

Paris FC

4-2-3-1

1 K. Trapp

17 A. Camara

31 S. Chergui

42 D. Coppola

14 H. Traore

20 M. Lopez

33 P. Lees-Melou

10 I. Kebbal

7 P. Pagis

15 L. Koleosho

9 L. Sinayoko

Coach · Liam Rosenior

Substitutes

16 · O. Nkambadio

5 · M. Mbow

3 · E. Mbemba

28 · T. De Smet

6 · Otavio

8 · P. Zabi

23 · R. Matondo

18 · O. Sissoko

11 · J. Krasso

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lorient

3-4-2-1

38 Y. Mvogo

32 N. Adjei

3 M. Talbi

95 I. Toure

20 D. Sylla

8 N. Cadiou

2 A. Georgen

43 A. Kouassi

17 J. Makengo

10 I. Jensen

42 M. Kone

Coach · Alexandre Dujeux

Substitutes

21 · B. Kamara

55 · N. Obaretin

30 · S. Kuzmic

62 · A. Avom

11 · T. Le Bris

33 · G. Bernardeau

19 · S. Faye

18 · I. Balde

31 · S. Haribou

Paris FC

4-2-3-1

1 K. Trapp

17 A. Camara

31 S. Chergui

42 D. Coppola

14 H. Traore

20 M. Lopez

33 P. Lees-Melou

10 I. Kebbal

7 P. Pagis

15 L. Koleosho

9 L. Sinayoko

Coach · Liam Rosenior

Substitutes

16 · O. Nkambadio

5 · M. Mbow

3 · E. Mbemba

28 · T. De Smet

6 · Otavio

8 · P. Zabi

23 · R. Matondo

18 · O. Sissoko

11 · J. Krasso

Our number · lorient winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

38% The market27%

Us38%

~~Market~~27%

We make Lorient a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lorient win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 30% to 27% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lorient win	38%	27%	+11
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Paris FC win	35%	45%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	52%	49%	+3
Both teams to score	56%	53%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	72%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	28%	+2
Lorient or draw	65%	55%	+10
Lorient clean sheet	26%	–	–
Paris FC clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.2 8.0 5.8 2.6 1 8.4 12.6 8.0 3.6 2 6.3 8.4 5.6 2.5 3 3.0 4.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lorient down, Paris FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,731 Ligue 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lorient at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Paris FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Lorient, 1.35 for Paris FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 19:20. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LOR 1–1 PAR · PAR 2–0 LOR

Form · last six in Ligue 1

LORIENT

LDLWDL0–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

PARIS FC

WDWWDW2–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monaco	5	+5	13
2	Lyon	6	+7	11
3	Paris FC	5	+5	11
4	Lille	5	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	−1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	+1	8
7	Lens	6	+1	7
8	Angers	5	+1	7
9	Strasbourg	5	0	7
10	Le Mans	5	0	6
11	Auxerre	5	−5	6
12	Stade Brestois 29	5	−1	5
13	Lorient	5	−1	5
14	Toulouse	5	−2	5
15	Nice	5	−3	5
16	Estac Troyes	5	−7	4
17	Marseille	5	−1	3
18	Le Havre	5	−3	2