Lorient v Monaco prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Lorient 1–0 Monaco MONACO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monaco win~~45%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.742

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.836

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Monaco win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Monaco 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 31–25–45
1′KICK-OFF Lorient v Monaco
45′HALF-TIME Lorient 0–0 Monaco
45′SECOND HALF Lorient 0–0 Monaco
49′8 shots for Monaco, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 26–39–35
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Monaco win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Monaco win 34%)
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Monaco · On: Edan Diop · Off: Takumi Minamino
54′We said Monaco at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 25–42–33
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–42–33
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Mohammed Salisu · Monaco
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Denis Zakaria · Monaco
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Flavio Nazinho · Monaco
62′We said Monaco at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–0 · 71–23–7
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Lorient 1–0 Monaco
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Monaco win: 45% at kick-off, 7% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Lorient win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 23%)
63′Noah Cadiou scores for Lorient on 61′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–22–7
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Monaco · On: Folarin Balogun · Off: Ansu Fati
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Monaco · On: Mathys Detourbet · Off: Denis Zakaria
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Monaco · On: Christian Mawissa · Off: Mohammed Salisu
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Monaco win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Noah Cadiou · Lorient
70′We said Monaco at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
72′12 shots for Monaco, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 77–19–4
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Lorient · On: Mamadou Kone · Off: Ibrahima Balde
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Monaco · On: Mika Biereth · Off: Matthis Abline
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Arsène Kouassi · Lorient
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Lorient · On: Souleymane Faye · Off: Gabin Bernardeau
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Christian Mawissa · Monaco
FTFULL TIME Lorient 1–0 Monaco
FTLorient 1–0 Monaco · Monaco win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Monaco are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lorient 31%, draw 25%, Monaco 45%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Lorient v MonacoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lorient win31%

Draw25%

Monaco win45%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:15

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStade du Moustoir

RefereeMarc Bollengier

Line-ups

Lorient

3-4-2-1

Monaco

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lorient

Monaco

8Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · the French Ligue 1

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Monaco	6	+5	14
10	Lorient	6	0	8

In the news

from the pressAll ›

AS Monaco’s Eric Dier out for several weeksGet French Football News · 18 Oct 10:16 · Monaco Monaco predicted XI v Lorient: Eric Dier and Stanis Idumbo outGet French Football News · 18 Oct 09:50 · Monaco, Lorient Monaco begin Europa Conference League campaign with winGet French Football News · 16 Oct 10:30 · Monaco, Europa

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lorient

3-4-2-1

38 Y. Mvogo

32 N. Adjei

3 M. Talbi

95 I. Toure

20 D. Sylla

8 N. Cadiou

62 A. Avom

43 A. Kouassi

17 J. Makengo

33 G. Bernardeau

18 I. Balde

Coach · Alexandre Dujeux

Substitutes

21 · B. Kamara

2 · A. Georgen

55 · N. Obaretin

30 · S. Kuzmic

77 · P. Katseris

11 · T. Le Bris

19 · S. Faye

15 · A. Tosin

42 · M. Kone

Monaco

4-2-3-1

1 L. Hradecky

2 Vanderson

72 S. Sane

22 M. Salisu

20 Nazinho

8 L. Camara

6 D. Zakaria

18 T. Minamino

31 A. Fati

10 A. Golovin

11 M. Abline

Coach · Luis Filipe

Substitutes

16 · P. Kohn

4 · J. Teze

13 · C. Mawissa

37 · E. Diop

19 · P. Cabral

28 · M. Coulibaly

9 · F. Balogun

14 · M. Biereth

7 · M. Detourbet

Our number · monaco winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 13:41 · locked at kick-off

45% The market46%

Us45%

~~Market~~46%

We make Monaco a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lorient v Monaco~~1.36 – 1.69

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 14~~10 v 3

~~The market · Monaco win~~46% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Monaco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lorient win	31%	26%	+5
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Monaco win	45%	46%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	59%	48%	+11
Both teams to score	61%	53%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	81%	72%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	36%	28%	+8
Lorient or draw	55%	54%	+1
Lorient clean sheet	19%	–	–
Monaco clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.4 7.5 6.7 3.8 1 6.0 11.3 9.0 5.1 2.2 2 4.4 7.3 6.1 3.5 3 2.0 3.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lorient down, Monaco across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,743 Ligue 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.1% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.12 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lorient at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Monaco away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Lorient, 1.69 for Monaco. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MON 1–3 LOR · LOR 3–1 MON · MON 2–2 LOR · LOR 2–2 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

LORIENT

DLWDLW0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

MONACO

WWWDWD1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paris Saint Germain	7	+5	14
2	Lille	7	+5	14
3	Monaco	6	+5	14
4	Rennes	6	+2	13
5	Lyon	6	+7	11
6	Paris FC	6	+4	11
7	Lens	7	+3	10
8	Stade Brestois 29	7	+3	9
9	Toulouse	7	+1	9
10	Lorient	6	0	8
11	Nice	6	−2	8
12	Strasbourg	7	−3	7
13	Angers	6	−3	7
14	Marseille	6	+1	6
15	Le Mans	7	−5	6
16	Auxerre	6	−8	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	−11	4
18	Le Havre	6	−4	2