Lille v Stade Brestois 29 prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

Lille 1–1 Stade Brestois 29 LILLE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Lille win~~54%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.901

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.832

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lille win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lille was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
1′KICK-OFF Lille v Stade Brestois 29
7′We said Lille at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–24–48
7′Stade Brestois 29 ahead on 6′ through Gautier Lloris. 0–1. 0–1 · 28–24–48
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Lille 0–1 Stade Brestois 29
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Lille win: 54% at kick-off, 28% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Stade Brestois 29 win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Lille win 28%)
15′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Kamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29
19′We said Lille at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–50
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Lille win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 21–26–53
33′We said Lille at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–27–54
45′HALF-TIME Lille 0–1 Stade Brestois 29
46′We said Lille at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–59
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Lille win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
46′SECOND HALF Lille 0–1 Stade Brestois 29
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Stade Brestois 29 · On: Joseph Nonge · Off: Mama Baldé
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Lille · On: Calvin Verdonk · Off: Romain Perraud
59′We said Lille at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Bradley Locko · Stade Brestois 29
65′Olivier Giroud scores for Lille on 64′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–53–16
65′We said Lille at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–53–16
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Lille 1–1 Stade Brestois 29 · Olivier Giroud (penalty)
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Lille win: 54% at kick-off, 31% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Stade Brestois 29 win 16%)
66′11 shots for Lille, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 30–54–16
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Lille · On: Nabil Bentaleb · Off: Benjamin André
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Lille · On: Soriba Diaoune · Off: Dilane Bakwa
68′We published Lille at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Lille 2–1 Stade Brestois 29
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Lille win: 54% at kick-off, 85% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Lille win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
69′GOAL DISALLOWED · 69' Lille
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Lille win: 54% at kick-off, 27% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Lille win 27%)
FTFULL TIME Lille 1–1 Stade Brestois 29
FTLille 1–1 Stade Brestois 29 · Lille win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lille are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lille 54%, draw 25%, Stade Brestois 29 22%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Lille v Stade Brestois 29Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lille win54%

Draw25%

Stade Brestois 29 win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStade Pierre-Mauroy

RefereeClement Turpin

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-3-1

Stade Brestois 29

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lille

Stade Brestois 29

4Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 10 Oct · the French Ligue 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Lille	6	+5	13
8	Stade Brestois 29	6	+3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-3-1

12 O. Gill

38 A. Goffi

3 N. Ngoy

23 T. Nianzou

15 R. Perraud

17 N. Mukau

21 B. Andre

8 E. Mbappe

10 H. Haraldsson

7 D. Bakwa

9 O. Giroud

Coach · Davide Ancelotti

Substitutes

40 · Z. Lanssade

26 · I. Cossier

24 · C. Verdonk

6 · N. Bentaleb

14 · M. Kjaergaard

19 · B. Onal

35 · S. Diaoune

28 · G. Perrin

33 · A. Yondjo

Stade Brestois 29

4-2-3-1

1 E. Selvik

70 K. Lala

29 L. Tousart

4 G. Lloris

2 B. Locko

13 J. Chotard

8 H. Magnetti

17 M. Balde

23 K. Doumbia

9 P. Mboup

19 L. Ajorque

Coach · Julien Lachuer

Substitutes

30 · M. Patouillet

18 · J. Bourgault

20 · L. Zogbe

7 · J. Nonge

6 · M. Diambou

39 · D. N'Guessan

21 · I. Y. Kante

33 · E. Monchatre

Our number · lille winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market47%

Us54%

~~Market~~47%

We make Lille a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lille v Stade Brestois 29~~1.74 – 1.02

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~2 v 8

~~The market · Lille win~~47% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lille win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lille win	54%	47%	+7
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Stade Brestois 29 win	22%	27%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	52%	55%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	58%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
Lille or draw	78%	73%	+5
Lille clean sheet	36%	–	–
Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.0 6.0 3.3 1 10.5 11.7 5.7 2 9.5 9.6 4.9 3 5.5 5.6 2.9 4 2.4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lille down, Stade Brestois 29 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,740 Ligue 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lille at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Lille, 1.02 for Stade Brestois 29. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 19:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LIL 1–1 STA · STA 3–3 LIL · STA 2–0 LIL · LIL 3–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

LILLE

WDWWLW2–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

STADE BRESTOIS 29

DDWLLW2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monaco	6	+5	14
2	Lille	6	+5	13
3	Rennes	6	+2	13
4	Lyon	6	+7	11
5	Paris FC	6	+4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	+3	11
7	Toulouse	7	+1	9
8	Stade Brestois 29	6	+3	8
9	Lorient	6	0	8
10	Nice	6	−2	8
11	Lens	6	+1	7
12	Strasbourg	6	−1	7
13	Angers	6	−3	7
14	Marseille	6	+1	6
15	Le Mans	7	−5	6
16	Auxerre	6	−8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	−9	4
18	Le Havre	6	−4	2