Lille v Lens prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LilleDrawLens

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:05

Before kick-off · Match result · Lille 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lille are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lille 40%, draw 28%, Lens 32%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Lille v LensBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Lille win40%

Draw28%

Lens win32%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 20:05

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStade Pierre-Mauroy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lille

Lens

9Days since last match6

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 24 Oct · the French Ligue 1

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Lille	7	+5	14
9	Lens	7	+3	10

In the news

from the pressAll ›

West Ham loanee Jean-Clair Todibo struggles to adapt at LensGet French Football News · 24 Oct 10:16 · Lens Paris FC predicted XI v Lens: No fresh absences for Liam Rosenior to contend withGet French Football News · 24 Oct 09:45 · Lens Ligue 1 Predictions | Round 8: PSG host Lyon, Davide Ancelotti’s Lille travel to MonacoGet French Football News · 23 Oct 10:20 · Paris Saint Germain, Lyon, Lille, Monaco

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lille winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Lille a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lille v Lens~~1.36 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 10~~4 v 9

~~The market · Lille win~~41% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lille win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lille win	40%	41%	−1
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Lens win	32%	33%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	56%	−9
Both teams to score	52%	60%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	73%	78%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	35%	−10
Lille or draw	68%	67%	+1
Lille clean sheet	31%	–	–
Lens clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.6 8.7 5.5 2.2 1 10.1 13.1 7.4 2.9 2 7.3 8.5 5.0 3 3.3 3.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lille down, Lens across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,749 Ligue 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lille at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lens away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Lille, 1.18 for Lens. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LIL 3–0 LEN · LEN 3–0 LIL · LIL 1–0 LEN · LEN 0–2 LIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 28 Aug

LILLE

DWWLWD2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

LENS

LDLWWW0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lyon	7	+8	14
2	Paris Saint Germain	7	+5	14
3	Paris FC	7	+5	14
4	Lille	7	+5	14
5	Monaco	7	+4	14
6	Rennes	7	+1	13
7	Lorient	7	+1	11
8	Nice	8	−2	11
9	Lens	7	+3	10
10	Marseille	7	+4	9
11	Stade Brestois 29	8	+2	9
12	Toulouse	7	+1	9
13	Auxerre	7	−6	9
14	Strasbourg	7	−3	7
15	Angers	7	−6	7
16	Le Mans	7	−5	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	−11	4
18	Le Havre	7	−6	2