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Lille v Le Havre

Lille

1–0Full time

Le Havre

Ligue 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Lille 1–0 Le Havre LILLE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Lille win~~59%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.250

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.188

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lille win at 59%.
0′Much as we predicted: Lille was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–17
0′KICK-OFF Lille v Le Havre
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Lille 1–0 Le Havre · Dilane Bakwa
7′5′ and it is 1–0: Dilane Bakwa on the scoresheet for Lille. 1–0 · 83–12–5
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Lille win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
11′We published Lille at 59%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–12–5
22′SUBSTITUTION · 22' Lille · On: Maxima Goffi · Off: Tiago Santos Corrected
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Lille win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Lille win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 5' Lille 1–0 Le Havre · Dilane Bakwa (assist Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi)
42′SUBSTITUTION · 22' Lille · On: Maxima Goffi · Off: Tiago Santos Corrected
45′HALF-TIME Lille 1–0 Le Havre
45′SECOND HALF Lille 1–0 Le Havre
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Lille · On: Hákon Arnar Haraldsson · Off: Gaëtan Perrin Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Lille · On: Ayase Ueda · Off: Olivier Giroud Corrected
61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Lille
61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Ayumu Seko · Le Havre
62′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Rassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Le Havre · On: Rayan Fofana · Off: Sota Nakamura Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Le Havre · On: Junior Mwanga · Off: Josh Maja Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lille · On: Calvin Verdonk · Off: Romain Perraud Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lille · On: Osame Sahraoui · Off: Ngal'ayel Mukau Corrected
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Djibril Ouziad · Le Havre
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Le Havre · On: Kaito Mizuta · Off: Amir Richardson Corrected
84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Maurits Kjaergaard · Lille
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Maxima Goffi · Lille
FTFULL TIME Lille 1–0 Le Havre
FTLille 1–0 Le Havre · Lille win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Lille win59%

Draw24%

Le Havre win16%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:15

Venue · Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Referee · Bastein Dechepy

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-3-1

1 B. Ozer

22 T. Santos

23 T. Nianzou

4 Alexsandro

15 R. Perraud

6 N. Bentaleb

14 M. Kjaergaard

7 D. Bakwa

17 N. Mukau

28 G. Perrin

9 O. Giroud

Coach · Davide Ancelotti

Substitutes

12 · O. Gill

26 · I. Cossier

24 · C. Verdonk

38 · A. Goffi

21 · B. Andre

11 · O. Sahraoui

35 · S. Diaoune

18 · A. Ueda

10 · H. Haraldsson

Le Havre

4-3-3

93 G. Gallon

20 D. Ouziad

15 A. Seko

5 A. Touba

97 M. N'Diaye

14 R. Ndiaye

26 S. Ebonog

7 A. Richardson

30 S. Nakamura

9 J. Maja

25 A. Samatta

Coach · Didier Digard

Substitutes

16 · A. Bodart

23 · V. Sasso

44 · I. Bouneb

24 · G. Zohouri

6 · J. Mwanga

78 · D. N. Mosengo

17 · K. Mizuta

38 · R. Fofana

27 · E. K. Vinette

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-3-1

1 B. Ozer

22 T. Santos

23 T. Nianzou

4 Alexsandro

15 R. Perraud

6 N. Bentaleb

14 M. Kjaergaard

7 D. Bakwa

17 N. Mukau

28 G. Perrin

9 O. Giroud

Coach · Davide Ancelotti

Substitutes

12 · O. Gill

26 · I. Cossier

24 · C. Verdonk

38 · A. Goffi

21 · B. Andre

11 · O. Sahraoui

35 · S. Diaoune

18 · A. Ueda

10 · H. Haraldsson

Le Havre

4-3-3

93 G. Gallon

20 D. Ouziad

15 A. Seko

5 A. Touba

97 M. N'Diaye

14 R. Ndiaye

26 S. Ebonog

7 A. Richardson

30 S. Nakamura

9 J. Maja

25 A. Samatta

Coach · Didier Digard

Substitutes

16 · A. Bodart

23 · V. Sasso

44 · I. Bouneb

24 · G. Zohouri

6 · J. Mwanga

78 · D. N. Mosengo

17 · K. Mizuta

38 · R. Fofana

27 · E. K. Vinette

Our number · lille winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

59% The market65%

Us59%

~~Market~~65%

We make Lille a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lille win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lille win	59%	65%	−5
Draw	24%	21%	+4
Le Havre win	16%	15%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	58%	−10
Both teams to score	46%	53%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	79%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	26%	37%	−11
Lille or draw	84%	85%	−2
Lille clean sheet	45%	–	–
Le Havre clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 8.4 5.6 2.5 1 13.0 11.4 4.4 2 11.9 9.4 3.8 3 7.0 5.6 2.2 4 3.1 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lille down, Le Havre across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,731 Ligue 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lille at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Le Havre away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Lille, 0.80 for Le Havre. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LIL 1–1 LEH · LEH 0–1 LIL · LIL 1–2 LEH · LEH 0–3 LIL

Form · last six in Ligue 1

LILLE

LWDWWL0–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

LE HAVRE

WLDLDL2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monaco	5	+5	13
2	Lyon	6	+7	11
3	Paris FC	5	+5	11
4	Lille	5	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	−1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	+1	8
7	Lens	6	+1	7
8	Angers	5	+1	7
9	Strasbourg	5	0	7
10	Le Mans	5	0	6
11	Auxerre	5	−5	6
12	Stade Brestois 29	5	−1	5
13	Lorient	5	−1	5
14	Toulouse	5	−2	5
15	Nice	5	−3	5
16	Estac Troyes	5	−7	4
17	Marseille	5	−1	3
18	Le Havre	5	−3	2