Lens v Paris FC

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lens win at 53%.
2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Lens 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–24–23
3. 2′KICK-OFF Lens v Paris FC
4. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Moustapha Mbow · Paris FC
5. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Pierre Lees Melou · Paris FC
6. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Lens win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
7. 45′SECOND HALF Lens 0–1 Paris FC
8. 46′We said Lens at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–27–58
9. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Lens 0–1 Paris FC
10. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Lens win: 53% at kick-off, 15% now
11. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Paris FC win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Lens win 42%)
12. 47′Paris FC ahead on 45′ through Luca Koleosho. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–27–59
13. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Paris FC · On: Emmanuel Mbemba · Off: Luca Koleosho
14. 49′We said Lens at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–60
15. 50′Lens are down to ten from 48′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 13–27–60
16. 50′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Jean-Clair Todibo · Lens
17. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Lens win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
18. 51′Lens have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 15–27–58
19. 51′HALF-TIME Lens 0–1 Paris FC
20. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Florian Thauvin · Lens
21. 60′We said Lens at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
22. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Lens · On: Kyllian Antonio · Off: Jean-Clair Todibo
23. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Lens · On: Thorgan Hazard · Off: Franjo Ivanovic
24. 63′We said Lens at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–50–18
25. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Lens 1–1 Paris FC
26. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Lens win: 53% at kick-off, 32% now
27. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Paris FC win 68%)
28. 64′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 32–51–17
29. 64′Florian Thauvin scores for Lens on 63′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–51–17
30. 67′We said Lens at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–16
31. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Paris FC · On: Moses Simon · Off: Adama Camara
32. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Paris FC · On: Rudy Matondo · Off: Pablo Pagis
33. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Lens · On: Yassine Titraoui · Off: Amadou Haidara
34. 73′We said Lens at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
35. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Lens win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
36. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Samson Baidoo · Lens
37. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Paris FC · On: Patrick Zabi · Off: Ilan Kebbal
38. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Paris FC · On: Thibault De Smet · Off: Rudy Matondo
39. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Lens win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
40. 83′We said Lens at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
41. 83′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 93–7–0
42. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Lens 2–1 Paris FC
43. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Lens win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
44. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Lens win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 81%)
45. 84′83′: Thorgan Hazard on the scoresheet for Lens, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
46. 86′We said Lens at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
47. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Lens · On: Michał Skóraś · Off: Saud Abdulhamid
48. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Lens · On: Junior Kadile · Off: Florian Sotoca
49. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Michał Skóraś · Lens
50. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Otavio · Paris FC
51. 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Y. Cahuzac · Lens
52. FTFULL TIME Lens 2–1 Paris FC
53. FTLens 2–1 Paris FC · Lens win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.