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Lens v Lyon

Lens

2–1Full time

Lyon

Ligue 1 · FRI 9 OCT · Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Lens 2–1 Lyon LENS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lens win~~46%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.444

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.593

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lens win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lens 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–29
1′KICK-OFF Lens v Lyon
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Abner Vinicius · Lyon
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Lens 1–0 Lyon
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Lens 1–0 Lyon · Florian Sotoca
45′SECOND HALF Lens 1–0 Lyon
46′HALF-TIME Lens 1–0 Lyon
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Jonathan Gradit · Lens
53′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Lens · On: Samson Baidoo · Off: Jonathan Gradit Corrected
53′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Lens · On: Amadou Haidara · Off: Yassine Titraoui Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lyon · On: Keito Nakamura · Off: Loïs Openda Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lyon · On: Noah Teye Nartey · Off: Mads Bidstrup Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Lens · On: Franjo Ivanovic · Off: Odsonne Édouard Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Lens · On: Junior Kadile · Off: Florian Sotoca Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Lyon · On: Kail Boudache · Off: Ernest Nuamah Corrected
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Lens 2–0 Lyon · Florian Sotoca
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Lens 2–0 Lyon · Matthieu Udol
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lyon · On: Tanner Tessmann · Off: Tyler Morton Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lyon · On: Khalis Merah · Off: Pavel Šulc Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Lens · On: Andrija Bulatović · Off: Michaël Cuisance Corrected
84′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Lens
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Lens 2–1 Lyon · Matthieu Udol
84′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Matthieu Udol · Lens
84′⚽ GOAL · 85' Lens 2–1 Lyon · Khalis Merah
FTFULL TIME Lens 2–1 Lyon
FTLens 2–1 Lyon · Lens win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Lens win46%

Draw25%

Lyon win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Ligue 1 Predictions | Round 6: Lyon visit Lens as Marseille face must-win game against TroyesGet French Football News · 9 hours ago · Lyon, Lens, Marseille Lens set Andrija Bulatovic price tag amid Bundesliga interestGet French Football News · 9 hours ago · Lens Lens predicted XI v Lyon: Thorgan Hazard to be omitted?Get French Football News · 10 hours ago · Lens, Lyon Lyon predicted XI v Lens: Moussa Niakhaté out, Pavel Sulc to startGet French Football News · 10 hours ago · Lyon, Lens

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Referee · Jeremy Stinat

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Lens

3-4-2-1

40 R. Risser

24 J. Gradit

25 I. Ganiou

32 K. Antonio

2 R. Aguilar

27 M. Cuisance

8 Y. Titraoui

14 M. Udol

10 F. Thauvin

7 F. Sotoca

11 O. Edouard

Coach · Yannick Cahuzac

Substitutes

16 · M. Gorgelin

23 · S. Abdulhamid

6 · S. Baidoo

21 · A. Haidara

5 · A. Bulatovic

38 · M. Soares

22 · M. Skoras

28 · J. Kadile

29 · F. Ivanovic

Lyon

4-3-3

1 D. Greif

13 Z. Athekame

20 F. Bacher

21 R. Kluivert

16 Abner Vinicius

2 M. Bidstrup

23 T. Morton

8 C. Tolisso

7 E. Nuamah

10 P. Sulc

17 L. Openda

Coach · Paulo Fonseca

Substitutes

40 · R. Descamps

22 · C. Mata

85 · N. Kamara

6 · T. Tessmann

18 · K. Merah

99 · N. Nartey

11 · K. Nakamura

26 · K. Boudache

24 · J. Duranville

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lens

3-4-2-1

40 R. Risser

24 J. Gradit

25 I. Ganiou

32 K. Antonio

2 R. Aguilar

27 M. Cuisance

8 Y. Titraoui

14 M. Udol

10 F. Thauvin

7 F. Sotoca

11 O. Edouard

Coach · Yannick Cahuzac

Substitutes

16 · M. Gorgelin

23 · S. Abdulhamid

6 · S. Baidoo

21 · A. Haidara

5 · A. Bulatovic

38 · M. Soares

22 · M. Skoras

28 · J. Kadile

29 · F. Ivanovic

Lyon

4-3-3

1 D. Greif

13 Z. Athekame

20 F. Bacher

21 R. Kluivert

16 Abner Vinicius

2 M. Bidstrup

23 T. Morton

8 C. Tolisso

7 E. Nuamah

10 P. Sulc

17 L. Openda

Coach · Paulo Fonseca

Substitutes

40 · R. Descamps

22 · C. Mata

85 · N. Kamara

6 · T. Tessmann

18 · K. Merah

99 · N. Nartey

11 · K. Nakamura

26 · K. Boudache

24 · J. Duranville

Our number · lens winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

46% The market37%

Us46%

~~Market~~37%

We make Lens a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lens win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lens win	46%	37%	+8
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Lyon win	29%	36%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	55%	62%	−7
Both teams to score	58%	65%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	42%	−8
Lens or draw	71%	64%	+7
Lens clean sheet	28%	–	–
Lyon clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.2 6.3 4.4 1 8.4 11.9 7.1 3.0 2 7.4 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 4.0 5.1 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lens down, Lyon across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,730 Ligue 1 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lens at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lyon away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Lens, 1.26 for Lyon. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LYO 0–4 LEN · LEN 0–1 LYO · LYO 1–2 LEN · LEN 0–0 LYO

Form · last six in Ligue 1

LENS

WWLLDL4–0 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

LYON

LWDWDW0–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monaco	5	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	+5	11
4	Lille	5	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	−1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	+1	8
7	Angers	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	−5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	−1	5
12	Lorient	5	−1	5
13	Toulouse	5	−2	5
14	Nice	5	−3	5
15	Lens	5	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	−7	4
17	Marseille	5	−1	3
18	Le Havre	5	−3	2