Le Mans v Toulouse prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30

Le Mans 0–3 Toulouse LE MANS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Le Mans win~~40%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.641

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.495

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Le Mans win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Le Mans 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
1′KICK-OFF Le Mans v Toulouse
45′We said Le Mans at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–23–67
45′SECOND HALF Le Mans 0–0 Toulouse
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Le Mans 0–1 Toulouse
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Le Mans win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Toulouse win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Le Mans win 11%)
46′HALF-TIME Le Mans 0–0 Toulouse
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Le Mans win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
47′46′: Jacen Russell-Rowe on the scoresheet for Toulouse, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–67
49′We said Le Mans at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Jacen Russell-Rowe · Toulouse
59′We said Le Mans at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Le Mans 0–2 Toulouse
60′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–94
60′Toulouse ahead on 59′ through Aron Dønnum. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Le Mans · On: Bilal Brahimi · Off: Daouda Traore
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Le Mans · On: Habib Diallo · Off: Dame Gueye
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Le Mans · On: Lucas Calodat · Off: Yasser Larouci
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Toulouse · On: Alexis Vossah · Off: Aron Dønnum
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Le Mans win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Le Mans · On: Rayan Bamba · Off: Lucas Buades
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Le Mans 0–3 Toulouse
76′Casper Tengstedt scores for Toulouse on 75′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Toulouse · On: Julián Vignolo · Off: Jacen Russell-Rowe
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Le Mans · On: Noa Boissé · Off: Harold Voyer
78′GOAL DISALLOWED · 78' Toulouse
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Toulouse · On: Seny Koumbassa · Off: Rasmus Nicolaisen
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Le Mans 0–3 Toulouse
88′Casper Tengstedt scores for Toulouse on 87′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Samuel Yohou · Le Mans
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Djibril Sidibé · Le Mans
97′0–3 at the end. Our 40% on Le Mans misses, and the record keeps it. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Le Mans 0–3 Toulouse
FTLe Mans 0–3 Toulouse · Le Mans win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Le Mans are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Le Mans 40%, draw 25%, Toulouse 35%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Le Mans v ToulouseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Le Mans win40%

Draw25%

Toulouse win35%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMMArena

RefereeAurelien Petit

Line-ups

Le Mans

3-1-4-2

Toulouse

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Le Mans

Toulouse

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the French Ligue 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Le Mans	6	−2	6
15	Toulouse	6	−2	6

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Le Mans midfielder Adil Bourabaa to be sidelined until 2027Get French Football News · 16 Oct 15:42 · Le Mans Toulouse predicted XI v Le Mans: Jens Berthel Askou’s side at full strengthGet French Football News · 16 Oct 10:47 · Toulouse, Le Mans Le Mans predicted XI v Toulouse: Adil Bouarabaa out, Djibril Sidibé to face former sideGet French Football News · 16 Oct 10:00 · Le Mans, Toulouse Le Mans midfielder Adil Bourabaa may undergo surgery and miss remainder of the yearGet French Football News · 15 Oct 15:15 · Le Mans

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Le Mans

3-1-4-2

98 N. Kocik

19 D. Sidibe

17 S. Yohou

5 H. Voyer

29 L. Bretelle

18 L. Buades

23 D. Traore

10 J. Vercruysse

76 Y. Larouci

14 L. Mafouta

25 D. Gueye

Coach · Patrick Videira

Substitutes

1 · E. Hatfout

26 · R. Bamba

15 · N. Boisse

8 · A. Lauray

22 · L. Calodat

13 · H. Diallo

20 · W. Harhouz

9 · A. Rabillard

7 · B. Brahimi

Toulouse

4-4-2

16 G. Restes

22 R. Messali

3 M. McKenzie

2 R. Nicolaisen

12 C. Tape

15 A. Donnum

23 C. Casseres

14 N. Sigur

8 T. Jorgensen

13 J. Russell-Rowe

20 C. Tengstedt

Coach · Jens Askou

Substitutes

1 · T. Collin

94 · I. Diallo

19 · D. Odogu

5 · S. Koumbassa

18 · M. Amougou

31 · N. Schmidt

6 · A. Vossah

9 · S. Hidalgo

7 · J. Vignolo

Our number · le mans winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

40% The market31%

Us40%

~~Market~~31%

We make Le Mans a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Le Mans v Toulouse~~1.55 – 1.45

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~14 v 15

~~The market · Le Mans win~~31% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Le Mans win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Le Mans win	40%	31%	+9
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Toulouse win	35%	43%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	57%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	37%	−2
Le Mans or draw	65%	57%	+8
Le Mans clean sheet	24%	–	–
Toulouse clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.7 6.8 5.3 2.6 1 7.3 11.5 7.9 3.9 2 6.0 8.5 6.1 3.0 3 3.1 4.4 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Le Mans down, Toulouse across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,739 Ligue 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Le Mans at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Toulouse away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Le Mans, 1.45 for Toulouse. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

LE MANS

DLDDWL2–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–3

TOULOUSE

LDLDWD0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monaco	6	+5	14
2	Lille	6	+5	13
3	Rennes	6	+2	13
4	Lyon	6	+7	11
5	Paris FC	6	+4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	+3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	+3	8
8	Lorient	6	0	8
9	Nice	6	−2	8
10	Lens	6	+1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	−1	7
12	Angers	6	−3	7
13	Marseille	6	+1	6
14	Le Mans	6	−2	6
15	Toulouse	6	−2	6
16	Auxerre	6	−8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	−9	4
18	Le Havre	6	−4	2