Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Le HavreDrawParis Saint Germain

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Paris Saint Germain 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Le Havre 15%, draw 20%, Paris Saint Germain 65%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Le Havre v Paris Saint GermainBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Le Havre win15%

Draw20%

Paris Saint Germain win65%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStade Océane

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Le Havre

Paris Saint Germain

12Days since last match10

Last match: 18 Oct · the French Ligue 1

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Paris Saint Germain	7	+5	14
18	Le Havre	7	−6	2

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Luis Enrique says PSG not guaranteed to dip into market to replace Khvicha KvaratskheliaGet French Football News · 24 Oct 13:25 · Paris Saint Germain PSG open to signing a goalkeeper in JanuaryGet French Football News · 24 Oct 09:58 · Paris Saint Germain

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paris saint germain winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

65% The market76%

Us65%

~~Market~~76%

We make Paris Saint Germain a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain~~0.91 – 2.15

~~Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 14~~18 v 2

~~The market · Paris Saint Germain win~~76% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Paris Saint Germain win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Le Havre win	15%	9%	+6
Draw	20%	14%	+6
Paris Saint Germain win	65%	76%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	59%	71%	−12
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	86%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	37%	52%	−15
Le Havre or draw	35%	24%	+11
Le Havre clean sheet	12%	–	–
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.7%

0123450 5.2 9.7 10.7 7.7 4.2 1 3.9 9.5 9.7 6.9 3.8 2 4.2 4.4 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Le Havre down, Paris Saint Germain across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,750 Ligue 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Le Havre at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Paris Saint Germain away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Le Havre, 2.15 for Paris Saint Germain. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LEH 0–1 PAR · PAR 3–0 LEH · PAR 2–1 LEH · LEH 1–4 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 28 Aug

LE HAVRE

DLDLLL1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–3

PARIS SAINT GERMAIN

DLWWWW2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lyon	7	+8	14
2	Paris Saint Germain	7	+5	14
3	Paris FC	7	+5	14
4	Lille	7	+5	14
5	Monaco	7	+4	14
6	Rennes	7	+1	13
7	Lorient	7	+1	11
8	Nice	8	−2	11
9	Lens	7	+3	10
10	Marseille	7	+4	9
11	Stade Brestois 29	8	+2	9
12	Toulouse	7	+1	9
13	Auxerre	7	−6	9
14	Strasbourg	7	−3	7
15	Angers	7	−6	7
16	Le Mans	7	−5	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	−11	4
18	Le Havre	7	−6	2