Le Havre v Auxerre prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Le Havre 1–3 Auxerre LE HAVRE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Le Havre win~~39%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.696

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.734

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Le Havre win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Le Havre was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
1′KICK-OFF Le Havre v Auxerre
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Le Havre win 33%)
41′Danny Namaso scores for Auxerre on 40′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–67
41′We said Le Havre at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–23–67
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Le Havre 0–1 Auxerre · Danny Namaso
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Le Havre win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Auxerre win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 23%)
42′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 10–23–68
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Le Havre win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
44′We said Le Havre at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Clément Akpa · Auxerre
45′HALF-TIME Le Havre 0–1 Auxerre
45′SECOND HALF Le Havre 0–1 Auxerre
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Naouirou Ahamada · Auxerre
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' M. Ndiaye · Le Havre
62′We said Le Havre at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Le Havre 0–2 Auxerre
63′61′: Danny Namaso on the scoresheet for Auxerre, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Le Havre · On: Hakim Dongopandji · Off: Josh Maja
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Le Havre · On: Rayan Fofana · Off: Sota Nakamura
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Le Havre · On: Enzo Koffi · Off: M. Ndiaye
66′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–19–77
66′Le Havre pull one back on 66′ through Rayan Fofana. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–19–77
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Le Havre 1–2 Auxerre
80′Romain Faivre scores for Auxerre on 80′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Le Havre 1–3 Auxerre · Romain Faivre
81′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Auxerre · On: Arthur Piedfort · Off: Naouirou Ahamada
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Le Havre · On: Kaito Mizuta · Off: Djibril Ouziad
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Le Havre · On: Guy-Noël Zohouri · Off: Rassoul Ndiaye
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Auxerre · On: Elikya Legros · Off: Lamine Sy
90′Full time, 1–3. We called Le Havre at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Le Havre 1–3 Auxerre
FTLe Havre 1–3 Auxerre · Le Havre win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Le Havre are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Le Havre 39%, draw 28%, Auxerre 32%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Le Havre v AuxerreBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Le Havre win39%

Draw28%

Auxerre win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:15

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStade Océane

RefereeEric Wattellier

Line-ups

Le Havre

4-3-3

Auxerre

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Le Havre

Auxerre

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the French Ligue 1

Last match: 11 Oct · the French Ligue 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Auxerre	6	−8	6
18	Le Havre	6	−4	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Le Havre

4-3-3

93 G. Gallon

20 D. Ouziad

6 J. Mwanga

5 A. Touba

97 M. N'Diaye

14 R. Ndiaye

26 S. Ebonog

7 A. Richardson

30 S. Nakamura

9 J. Maja

25 A. Samatta

Coach · Didier Digard

Substitutes

16 · A. Bodart

23 · V. Sasso

44 · I. Bouneb

24 · G. Zohouri

78 · D. N. Mosengo

33 · H. Dongopandji

17 · K. Mizuta

38 · R. Fofana

27 · E. K. Vinette

Auxerre

3-4-2-1

1 P. Nardi

15 C. Makosso

4 A. Tuanzebe

92 C. Akpa

27 L. Sy

8 N. Ahamada

5 K. Danois

22 F. Oppegard

21 R. Faivre

10 D. Namaso

9 C. Archer

Coach · Christophe Pelissier

Substitutes

23 · M. Diop

20 · S. Diomande

46 · A. Piedfort

35 · E. Legros

17 · P. Ekwah

34 · L. Dioubate

77 · A. Zossou

47 · Y. Khoudda

44 · M. Cissokho

Our number · le havre winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 14:18 · locked at kick-off

39% The market42%

Us39%

~~Market~~42%

We make Le Havre a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Le Havre v Auxerre~~1.30 – 1.15

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 2 v 6~~18 v 16

~~The market · Le Havre win~~42% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Le Havre win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. The market has gone from 39% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Le Havre win	39%	42%	−3
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Auxerre win	32%	31%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	55%	−11
Both teams to score	50%	59%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	71%	77%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	23%	34%	−11
Le Havre or draw	68%	69%	−1
Le Havre clean sheet	32%	–	–
Auxerre clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.4 9.3 5.7 2.2 1 10.6 13.4 7.3 2.8 2 7.3 8.3 4.7 3 3.2 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Le Havre down, Auxerre across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,743 Ligue 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.1% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Le Havre at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Auxerre away: 1.67 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Le Havre, 1.15 for Auxerre. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LEH 1–1 AUX · AUX 0–1 LEH · AUX 1–2 LEH · LEH 3–1 AUX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

LE HAVRE

LDLDLL0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1

AUXERRE

LLLWWL2–5 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paris Saint Germain	7	+5	14
2	Lille	7	+5	14
3	Monaco	6	+5	14
4	Rennes	6	+2	13
5	Lyon	6	+7	11
6	Paris FC	6	+4	11
7	Lens	7	+3	10
8	Stade Brestois 29	7	+3	9
9	Toulouse	7	+1	9
10	Lorient	6	0	8
11	Nice	6	−2	8
12	Strasbourg	7	−3	7
13	Angers	6	−3	7
14	Marseille	6	+1	6
15	Le Mans	7	−5	6
16	Auxerre	6	−8	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	−11	4
18	Le Havre	6	−4	2