Estac Troyes v Marseille prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Estac Troyes 0–2 Marseille MARSEILLE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Marseille win~~55%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.305

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.435

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Marseille win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Marseille was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 23–22–56
16′Much as we predicted: Marseille was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 23–25–53
47′We said Marseille at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 21–35–43
51′50′ and it is 0–1: Amine Harit on the scoresheet for Marseille. 0–1 · 5–16–79
53′We published Marseille at 55%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 4–16–79
56′We published Marseille at 55%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
60′50′ and it is 0–1: Amine Harit on the scoresheet for Marseille. 0–1 · 3–16–81
62′We published Marseille at 55%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–1 · 3–16–81
64′Estac Troyes have had 8.0 attempts to 3.0 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 3–15–82
72′We published Marseille at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
80′We published Marseille at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 90% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 90% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
82′Estac Troyes have had 12.0 attempts to 3.0 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–8–91
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 90% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 91% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 91% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 91% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
86′We published Marseille at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Marseille · On: Geoffrey Kondogbia · Off: Angel Gomes Corrected
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Marseille · On: Faris Moumbagna · Off: Igor Paixão Corrected
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Antoine Mille · Estac Troyes
88′We published Marseille at 55%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–1 · 0–3–97
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Marseille win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
92′We published Marseille at 55%. Our model now makes it 100%. 0–1 · 0–0–100
97′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Patrick Beach · Estac Troyes
97′⚽ GOAL · 98' Estac Troyes 0–1 Marseille · Himad Abdelli
FTFULL TIME Estac Troyes 0–2 Marseille
FTEstac Troyes 0–2 Marseille · Marseille win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Estac Troyes win23%

Draw22%

Marseille win55%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:45

VenueStade de l'Aube

RefereeGuillaume Paradis

Line-ups

Estac Troyes

4-2-3-1

Marseille

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Estac Troyes

Marseille

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Estac Troyes	5	−7	4
17	Marseille	5	−1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Marseille predicted XI v Strasbourg: Bruno Genesio contends with big-name absencesGet French Football News · 7 hours ago · Marseille, Strasbourg Marseille manager Bruno Genesio ‘reassured’ after talks with hierarchy, despite ’emergency’ situationGet French Football News · 2 days ago · Marseille Marseille’s Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg set for two-week absenceGet French Football News · 2 days ago · Marseille Ligue 1 Predictions | Round 6: Lyon visit Lens as Marseille face must-win game against TroyesGet French Football News · 2 days ago · Lyon, Lens, Marseille

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Estac Troyes

4-2-3-1

33 P. Beach

2 L. Maronnier

6 A. Monfray

4 J. M. Diaz

5 P. Gozzi

8 M. Diop

29 D. Karim

17 A. Mille

11 I. Gomis

7 K. Diawara

9 J. Le Douaron

Coach · Stephane Dumont

Substitutes

40 · H. Konate

31 · N. Donkor

34 · L. Simakha

26 · A. Phliponeau

10 · M. Ifnaoui

22 · H. Picard

20 · R. Ripart

23 · T. Nkada

37 · C. Batola

Marseille

4-2-3-1

1 J. De Lange

74 K. Bezahaf

4 C. Egan-Riley

21 N. Aguerd

33 Emerson

8 H. Abdelli

42 N. Kamissoko

77 A. Harit

7 A. Gomes

14 I. Paixao

9 A. Gouiri

Coach · Bruno Genesio

Substitutes

92 · T. Vermot

18 · B. Meite

46 · A. Koum Mbondo

25 · U. Garcia

19 · G. Kondogbia

6 · T. Nnadi

29 · F. Moumbagna

48 · K. Abdallah

11 · N. Maupay

Our number · marseille winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

55% The market46%

Us55%

~~Market~~46%

We make Marseille a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · marseille win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estac Troyes win	23%	28%	−5
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Marseille win	55%	46%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	62%	59%	+3
Both teams to score	60%	61%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	38%	+1
Estac Troyes or draw	45%	54%	−9
Estac Troyes clean sheet	14%	–	–
Marseille clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.7 7.7 8.0 5.4 2.8 1 4.6 10.1 9.5 6.3 3.2 2 3.1 5.9 5.7 3.8 3 2.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estac Troyes down, Marseille across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,736 Ligue 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estac Troyes at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Marseille away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Estac Troyes, 2.00 for Marseille. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAR 3–1 EST · EST 0–2 MAR · EST 1–1 MAR · MAR 1–0 EST

Form · last six in Ligue 1

ESTAC TROYES

DDWLLL1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–6 · 0–2 · 0–2

MARSEILLE

WWLLLL3–1 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monaco	6	+5	14
2	Lille	6	+5	13
3	Lyon	6	+7	11
4	Paris FC	6	+4	11
5	Paris Saint Germain	6	+3	11
6	Rennes	5	−1	10
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	+3	8
8	Lorient	6	0	8
9	Lens	6	+1	7
10	Strasbourg	5	0	7
11	Angers	6	−3	7
12	Le Mans	6	−2	6
13	Toulouse	6	−2	6
14	Auxerre	5	−5	6
15	Nice	5	−3	5
16	Estac Troyes	5	−7	4
17	Marseille	5	−1	3
18	Le Havre	6	−4	2