Estac Troyes v Lens prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

Estac Troyes 1–3 Lens LENS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lens win~~56%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.297

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.370

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lens win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lens 56% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 21–24–55
1′KICK-OFF Estac Troyes v Lens
14′We said Lens at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 7–14–79
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Estac Troyes 0–1 Lens
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Lens win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
15′13′: Adrien Monfray puts it into the Estac Troyes net, and it is 0–1. 0–1 · 7–14–79
28′Estac Troyes level it on 27′ through Timothee Nkada. 1–1. 1–1 · 21–30–49
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Estac Troyes 1–1 Lens · Timothee Nkada
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Lens win: 56% at kick-off, 49% now
29′Estac Troyes level it on 26′ through Timothee Nkada. 1–1. 1–1 · 21–30–49
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Lens win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
43′We said Lens at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 20–35–44
45′HALF-TIME Estac Troyes 1–2 Lens
45′SECOND HALF Estac Troyes 1–2 Lens
47′Odsonne Édouard scores for Lens on 45′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–15–80
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Estac Troyes 1–2 Lens · Odsonne Édouard
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Lens win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
48′We said Lens at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 4–15–80
48′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 4–15–80
55′We said Lens at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 1–3 · 0–3–96
55′55′: Ruben Aguilar on the scoresheet for Lens, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–96
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Estac Troyes 1–3 Lens
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Lens win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
56′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–3–97
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lens · On: Samson Baidoo · Off: Jean-Clair Todibo
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Estac Troyes · On: Kandet Diawara · Off: Timothee Nkada
FTFULL TIME Estac Troyes 1–3 Lens
FTEstac Troyes 1–3 Lens · Lens win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lens are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estac Troyes 21%, draw 23%, Lens 56%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Estac Troyes v LensBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Estac Troyes win21%

Draw23%

Lens win56%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStade de l'Aube

RefereeHakim Ben el Hadj

Line-ups

Estac Troyes

4-3-3

Lens

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estac Troyes

Lens

6Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · the French Ligue 1

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Lens	6	+1	7
17	Estac Troyes	6	−9	4

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Suarez scores again as Sporting beat LensBBC Sport · 14 Oct 22:01 · Lens

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Estac Troyes

4-3-3

33 P. Beach

2 L. Maronnier

6 A. Monfray

4 J. M. Diaz

5 P. Gozzi

17 A. Mille

29 D. Karim

8 M. Diop

10 M. Ifnaoui

20 R. Ripart

23 T. Nkada

Coach · Stephane Dumont

Substitutes

40 · H. Konate

31 · N. Donkor

34 · L. Simakha

26 · A. Phliponeau

11 · I. Gomis

22 · H. Picard

9 · J. Le Douaron

7 · K. Diawara

37 · C. Batola

Lens

3-4-2-1

40 R. Risser

32 K. Antonio

25 I. Ganiou

20 J. Todibo

2 R. Aguilar

8 Y. Titraoui

5 A. Bulatovic

22 M. Skoras

10 F. Thauvin

7 F. Sotoca

11 O. Edouard

Coach · Yannick Cahuzac

Substitutes

16 · M. Gorgelin

23 · S. Abdulhamid

6 · S. Baidoo

9 · T. Hazard

27 · M. Cuisance

21 · A. Haidara

38 · M. Soares

28 · J. Kadile

29 · F. Ivanovic

Our number · lens winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 17:38 · locked at kick-off

56% The market50%

Us56%

~~Market~~50%

We make Lens a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estac Troyes v Lens~~1.06 – 1.86

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~17 v 11

~~The market · Lens win~~50% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lens win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. The market has gone from 52% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estac Troyes win	21%	25%	−4
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Lens win	56%	50%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	56%	57%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	36%	−3
Estac Troyes or draw	44%	50%	−6
Estac Troyes clean sheet	16%	–	–
Lens clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.1 9.6 9.3 5.8 2.8 1 5.3 11.0 9.6 6.0 2.8 2 3.1 5.6 5.1 3.1 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estac Troyes down, Lens across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,740 Ligue 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estac Troyes at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lens away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Estac Troyes, 1.86 for Lens. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 19:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~EST 2–4 LEN · EST 1–1 LEN · LEN 1–0 EST · EST 1–3 LEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

ESTAC TROYES

DWLLLL0–0 · 2–1 · 2–6 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2

LENS

WLLDLW5–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monaco	6	+5	14
2	Lille	6	+5	13
3	Rennes	6	+2	13
4	Lyon	6	+7	11
5	Paris FC	6	+4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	+3	11
7	Toulouse	7	+1	9
8	Stade Brestois 29	6	+3	8
9	Lorient	6	0	8
10	Nice	6	−2	8
11	Lens	6	+1	7
12	Strasbourg	6	−1	7
13	Angers	6	−3	7
14	Marseille	6	+1	6
15	Le Mans	7	−5	6
16	Auxerre	6	−8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	−9	4
18	Le Havre	6	−4	2