Estac Troyes v Le Mans prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Estac TroyesDrawLe Mans

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Le Mans 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Le Mans just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Estac Troyes 36%, draw 25%, Le Mans 39%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Estac Troyes v Le MansBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Estac Troyes win36%

Draw25%

Le Mans win39%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStade de l'Aube

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estac Troyes

Le Mans

14Days since last match15

Last match: 17 Oct · the French Ligue 1

Last match: 16 Oct · the French Ligue 1

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Le Mans	7	−5	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	−11	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · le mans winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market29%

Us39%

~~Market~~29%

We make Le Mans a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estac Troyes v Le Mans~~1.51 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~17 v 16

~~The market · Le Mans win~~29% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Le Mans win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estac Troyes win	36%	44%	−8
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Le Mans win	39%	29%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	59%	53%	+6
Both teams to score	61%	56%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	81%	75%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	37%	32%	+5
Estac Troyes or draw	61%	71%	−10
Estac Troyes clean sheet	21%	–	–
Le Mans clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.3 6.8 5.7 3.0 1 6.5 11.2 8.3 4.4 2 5.2 8.0 6.2 3.3 3 2.7 4.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estac Troyes down, Le Mans across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,750 Ligue 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estac Troyes at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Le Mans away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Estac Troyes, 1.58 for Le Mans. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~EST 0–2 LEM · LEM 2–2 EST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 29 Aug

ESTAC TROYES

WLLLLL2–1 · 2–6 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–3

LE MANS

LDDWLL2–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lyon	7	+8	14
2	Paris Saint Germain	7	+5	14
3	Lille	7	+5	14
4	Paris FC	8	+4	14
5	Monaco	7	+4	14
6	Lens	8	+4	13
7	Rennes	7	+1	13
8	Lorient	7	+1	11
9	Nice	8	−2	11
10	Marseille	7	+4	9
11	Stade Brestois 29	8	+2	9
12	Toulouse	7	+1	9
13	Auxerre	7	−6	9
14	Strasbourg	7	−3	7
15	Angers	7	−6	7
16	Le Mans	7	−5	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	−11	4
18	Le Havre	7	−6	2