Auxerre v Le Mans prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AuxerreDrawLe Mans

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Auxerre 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Auxerre are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Auxerre 44%, draw 25%, Le Mans 31%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Auxerre v Le MansBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Auxerre win44%

Draw25%

Le Mans win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:15

RoundMatchday 8

VenueStade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

RefereeWilly Delajod

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Auxerre

Le Mans

7Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · the French Ligue 1

Last match: 16 Oct · the French Ligue 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Auxerre	7	−6	9
16	Le Mans	7	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · auxerre winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market46%

Us44%

~~Market~~46%

We make Auxerre a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Auxerre v Le Mans~~1.63 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 6~~13 v 16

~~The market · Auxerre win~~46% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Auxerre win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Auxerre win	44%	46%	−2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Le Mans win	31%	28%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	56%	0
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	35%	−1
Auxerre or draw	69%	72%	−3
Auxerre clean sheet	27%	–	–
Le Mans clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.0 6.5 4.6 2.0 1 8.2 11.6 7.3 3.2 2 7.0 8.9 5.9 2.6 3 3.8 4.9 3.2 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Auxerre down, Le Mans across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,750 Ligue 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Auxerre at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Le Mans away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Auxerre, 1.31 for Le Mans. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 29 Aug

AUXERRE

LLWWLW1–3 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 3–1

LE MANS

LDDWLL2–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lyon	7	+8	14
2	Paris Saint Germain	7	+5	14
3	Lille	7	+5	14
4	Paris FC	8	+4	14
5	Monaco	7	+4	14
6	Lens	8	+4	13
7	Rennes	7	+1	13
8	Lorient	7	+1	11
9	Nice	8	−2	11
10	Marseille	7	+4	9
11	Stade Brestois 29	8	+2	9
12	Toulouse	7	+1	9
13	Auxerre	7	−6	9
14	Strasbourg	7	−3	7
15	Angers	7	−6	7
16	Le Mans	7	−5	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	−11	4
18	Le Havre	7	−6	2