Angers v Marseille

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Marseille win at 53%.
2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Marseille 53% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 23–25–52
3. 2′KICK-OFF Angers v Marseille
4. 14′We said Marseille at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–0 · 50–25–26
5. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Angers 1–0 Marseille
6. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Marseille win: 53% at kick-off, 26% now
7. 14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Angers win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Marseille win 26%)
8. 15′Angers find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 50–25–25
9. 18′We said Marseille at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 51–25–24
10. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Marseille win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 54–26–20
12. 33′We said Marseille at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 55–26–19
13. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Angers 1–1 Marseille
14. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Marseille win: 53% at kick-off, 44% now
15. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Marseille win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Angers win 22%)
16. 39′Himad Abdelli scores for Marseille on 37′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 22–35–44
17. 43′We said Marseille at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–2 · 5–16–79
18. 43′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 5–16–79
19. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Angers 1–2 Marseille
20. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Marseille win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
21. 44′43′: Nouhoum Kamissoko on the scoresheet for Marseille, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–16–79
22. 45′SECOND HALF Angers 1–2 Marseille
23. 46′HALF-TIME Angers 1–2 Marseille
24. 49′We said Marseille at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 4–16–80
25. 59′We said Marseille at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 1–3 · 0–3–97
26. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Angers · On: Prosper Peter · Off: Louis Mouton Corrected
27. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Angers 1–3 Marseille
28. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Marseille win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
29. 60′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–3–97
30. 61′Marseille ahead on 60′ through Amine Gouiri. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
31. 62′PENALTY MISSED · 59' Amine Gouiri · Marseille
32. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Marseille · On: Nayef Aguerd · Off: Geoffrey Kondogbia Corrected
33. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Emmanuel Biumla · Angers
34. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Angers · On: Joseph Kalulu · Off: Emmanuel Biumla Corrected
35. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Angers · On: Harouna Djibirin · Off: Jim Allevinah Corrected
36. 74′We said Marseille at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–3 · 1–12–87
37. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Angers 2–3 Marseille
38. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Marseille win: 53% at kick-off, 87% now
39. 75′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–11–88
40. 75′Amine El Ouazzani scores for Angers on 75′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 1–11–88
41. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Tochukwu Nnadi · Marseille
42. 79′We said Marseille at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–3 · 1–9–90
43. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Marseille · On: Angel Gomes · Off: Nouhoum Kamissoko Corrected
44. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Marseille · On: Keyliane Abdallah · Off: Himad Abdelli Corrected
45. 82′We said Marseille at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
46. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Angers 2–4 Marseille
47. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Marseille win: 53% at kick-off, over 99% now
48. 83′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
49. 84′83′: Amine Harit on the scoresheet for Marseille, making it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
50. 84′7 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–5 · 0–0–100
51. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Angers 2–5 Marseille
52. 86′Marseille ahead on 85′ through Igor Paixão. 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
53. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Angers · On: Bané Diatta · Off: Amine El Ouazzani Corrected
54. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Angers · On: Anthony Bermont · Off: Amine Sbaï Corrected
55. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Marseille · On: Neal Maupay · Off: Tochukwu Nnadi Corrected
56. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Marseille · On: Ulisses Garcia · Off: Amine Harit Corrected
57. 96′2–5 at the end. Our 53% on Marseille comes in. 2–5 · 0–0–100
58. FTFULL TIME Angers 2–5 Marseille
59. FTAngers 2–5 Marseille · Marseille win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.