Angers v Lorient prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AngersDrawLorient

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Lorient 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lorient are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Angers 32%, draw 28%, Lorient 40%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Angers v LorientBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Angers win32%

Draw28%

Lorient win40%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:15

RoundMatchday 8

VenueStade Raymond Kopa

RefereeAzzedine Souifi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Angers

Lorient

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the French Ligue 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Lorient	7	+1	11
15	Angers	7	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lorient winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Lorient a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Angers v Lorient~~1.18 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~15 v 7

~~The market · Lorient win~~39% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lorient win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Angers win	32%	32%	0
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Lorient win	40%	39%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	47%	−1
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Angers or draw	60%	61%	−1
Angers clean sheet	27%	–	–
Lorient clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.8 10.2 7.2 3.2 1 9.0 13.2 8.4 3.8 2 5.7 7.5 5.0 2.2 3 2.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Angers down, Lorient across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,749 Ligue 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Angers at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lorient away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Angers, 1.33 for Lorient. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LOR 2–0 ANG · ANG 2–0 LOR · LOR 0–0 ANG · ANG 1–2 LOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 1 this season · since 29 Aug

ANGERS

WLDWLL3–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–5 · 2–5

LORIENT

LWDLWW1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lyon	7	+8	14
2	Paris Saint Germain	7	+5	14
3	Paris FC	7	+5	14
4	Lille	7	+5	14
5	Monaco	7	+4	14
6	Rennes	7	+1	13
7	Lorient	7	+1	11
8	Nice	8	−2	11
9	Lens	7	+3	10
10	Marseille	7	+4	9
11	Stade Brestois 29	8	+2	9
12	Toulouse	7	+1	9
13	Auxerre	7	−6	9
14	Strasbourg	7	−3	7
15	Angers	7	−6	7
16	Le Mans	7	−5	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	−11	4
18	Le Havre	7	−6	2