Saint-Malo W v Nantes W prediction · Feminine Division 1

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Saint-Malo W 0–2 Nantes W NANTES W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nantes W win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.410

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nantes W win at 48%.
4′Much as we predicted: Nantes W was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 28–25–47
4′KICK-OFF Saint-Malo W v Nantes W
5′6′: Victoria Krug on the scoresheet for Nantes W. 0–0 · 28–25–47
6′4′: Victoria Krug on the scoresheet for Nantes W. 0–0 · 28–25–47
10′We published Nantes W at 48%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 11–17–72
10′⚽ GOAL · 4' Saint-Malo W 0–1 Nantes W · Victoria Krug (assist Margaux Vairon)
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Nantes W win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
11′Madeline Roth scores for Nantes W on 8′. 0–1 · 11–17–72
15′We published Nantes W at 48%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–2 · 3–7–89
15′⚽ GOAL · 8' Saint-Malo W 0–2 Nantes W · Madeline Roth (assist Adele Connesson)
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Nantes W win: 48% at kick-off, 89% now
16′We published Nantes W at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–7–90
45′HALF-TIME Saint-Malo W 0–2 Nantes W
48′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Tante Diakite · Nantes W
48′SECOND HALF Saint-Malo W 0–2 Nantes W
51′We published Nantes W at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
51′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–95
58′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Thelma Eninger · Saint-Malo W
58′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Gabriela Grzybowska · Nantes W
60′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Claire Lelarge · Saint-Malo W
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Nantes W · On: Esther Buabadi · Off: Tante Diakite
62′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Victoria Krug · Nantes W
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Nantes W · On: Gabriela Grzybowska · Off: Imane Saoud Corrected
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Nantes W win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nantes W · On: Constance Brackman · Off: Margaux Vairon Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Saint-Malo W · On: Abigail Charpentier · Off: Elisa aubert Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Saint-Malo W · On: Abigail Charpentier · Off: Elisa aubert
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Nantes W · On: N. Potier · Off: Adele Connesson
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Nantes W · On: Liucija Vaitukaityte · Off: Zoi Van de Ven Corrected
82′We published Nantes W at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
85′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Nantes W · On: Liucija Vaitukaityte · Off: Zoi Van de Ven
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Saint-Malo W · On: Louise Kleczewski · Off: Megan Rucker Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Saint-Malo W · On: Louise Kleczewski · Off: Megan Rucker
91′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Inès Marques · Saint-Malo W
92′A red card for Saint-Malo W on 87′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 0–0–100
92′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Inès Marques · Saint-Malo W
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Saint-Malo W · On: Inès Arouaissa · Off: Julie Pian
93′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Saint-Malo W · On: Mama Diop · Off: Thelma Eninger
FTFULL TIME Saint-Malo W 0–2 Nantes W
FTSaint-Malo W 0–2 Nantes W · Nantes W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nantes W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Saint-Malo W 28%, draw 24%, Nantes W 48%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Saint-Malo W v Nantes WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Saint-Malo W win28%

Draw24%

Nantes W win48%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 5

RefereeGerbel·Audrey

Line-ups

Saint-Malo W

3-5-2

Nantes W

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Saint-Malo W

Nantes W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Feminine Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Saint-Malo W	4	−4	3
10	Nantes W	4	−3	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Saint-Malo W

3-5-2

16 I. Marques

77 M. Belkhiter

17 C. Boisneau

5 M. Rucker

14 E. Kouache

7 T. Eninger

25 C. Lelarge

8 J. Dumets

26 T. Job

3 É. Aubert

27 J. Pian

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · Abigail Charpentier

30 · Ines Arouaissa

99 · M. Diop

18 · Louise Kleczewski

24 · E. Minot

6 · F. Saint-Cricq

1 · L. Thiery

29 · C. Umeugochukwu

4 · M. Yvorel

Nantes W

4-3-3

99 N. Radkiewicz

24 M. Vairon

5 Julie Pasquereau

13 V. Krug

27 Juliane Denizot

28 M. Roth

51 Tante Diakite

15 Z. van de Ven

7 I. Saoud

17 Wu Chengshu

9 A. Connesson

Coach · Nicolas Chabot

Substitutes

10 · Camille Robillard

11 · N. Potier

1 · S. Grøn

26 · M. Kelley

6 · G. Grzybowska

42 · E. Buabadi

20 · C. Brackman

14 · Liucija Vaitukaityte

Our number · nantes w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Nantes W a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Saint-Malo W v Nantes W~~1.19 – 1.66

~~Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L3 · W0 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 2~~9 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Saint-Malo W win	28%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Nantes W win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Saint-Malo W or draw	52%	–	–
Saint-Malo W clean sheet	21%	–	–
Nantes W clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.5 9.8 7.8 4.4 2.0 1 7.3 11.0 8.6 4.8 2.1 2 4.4 6.5 5.1 2.8 3 2.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Saint-Malo W down, Nantes W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 690 Feminine Division 1 matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Feminine Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Saint-Malo W at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Nantes W away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Saint-Malo W, 1.66 for Nantes W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 5 Sept

SAINT-MALO W

LWLL2–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–2

NANTES W

LDLD0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lyon W	4	+24	12
2	Paris Saint Germain W	4	+7	12
3	Paris FC W	4	+1	9
4	Marseille W	4	+2	8
5	Le Havre W	4	−5	6
6	Montpellier W	4	+3	5
7	Strasbourg W	4	−3	4
8	FC Fleury 91 W	4	−6	4
9	Saint-Malo W	4	−4	3
10	Nantes W	4	−3	2
11	Lens W	4	−6	1
12	Toulouse W	4	−10	1