Paris Saint Germain W v Montpellier W prediction · Feminine Division 1

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:58

Paris Saint Germain W 1–0 Montpellier W PARIS SAINT GERMAIN W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paris Saint Germain W win~~73%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.113

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.104

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Paris Saint Germain W win at 73%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Paris Saint Germain W 73% before kick-off, 73% now. 0–0 · 73–17–11
1′KICK-OFF Paris Saint Germain W v Montpellier W
17′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Montpellier W
22′A goal for Paris Saint Germain W on 21′. 0–0 · 67–22–12
23′We said Paris Saint Germain W at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–3
23′⚽ GOAL · 21' Paris Saint Germain W 1–0 Montpellier W
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Paris Saint Germain W win: 73% at kick-off, 88% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 88–9–3
34′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Montpellier W
45′HALF-TIME Paris Saint Germain W 1–0 Montpellier W
46′SECOND HALF Paris Saint Germain W 1–0 Montpellier W
67′We said Paris Saint Germain W at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Paris Saint Germain W win: 73% at kick-off, 93% now
82′We said Paris Saint Germain W at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Paris Saint Germain W 1–0 Montpellier W
FTParis Saint Germain W 1–0 Montpellier W · Paris Saint Germain W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Paris Saint Germain W 73%, draw 17%, Montpellier W 11%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Paris Saint Germain W v Montpellier WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Paris Saint Germain W win73%

Draw17%

Montpellier W win11%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 20:05

RoundMatchday 6

VenueStade Georges Lefevre

Line-ups

Paris Saint Germain W

4-3-3

Montpellier W

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paris Saint Germain W

Montpellier W

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Feminine Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Paris Saint Germain W	5	+3	12
7	Montpellier W	5	+3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Paris Saint Germain W

4-3-3

16 O. Szperkowska

28 J. Le Guilly

29 G. Mbock Bathy

4 P. Dudek

77 Olga Carmona

8 Yaya

30 E. Østerås

6 O. Echegini

20 T. Elimbi

57 L. Morissaint

18 N. Feller

Coach · Paulo César

Substitutes

23 · N. Fatier

14 · J. Groenen

11 · F. Jourde

47 · M. Lafontaine

27 · G. Le Roux

17 · R. Leuchter

2 · T. Samoura

33 · O. Toussaint

Montpellier W

4-1-4-1

16 Solène Durand

5 A. Tchakounté

12 G. Gillard

18 A. Jelenčić

19 C. Baylet

6 E. Palis

20 A. Fontaine

8 B. Kharafi

9 Celia Chabod

21 S. Haering

11 J. Rouquet

Coach · Y. Chandioux

Substitutes

10 · A. Binaté

1 · C. Yilmaz

4 · M. Torrent

3 · R. Kadzere

7 · M. Skurcenski

13 · M. Revelli

17 · Natalia oleszkiewicz

22 · L. Gstalter

29 · L. Bourgouin

Our number · paris saint germain w winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

73% The market74%

Us73%

~~Market~~74%

We make Paris Saint Germain W a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Paris Saint Germain W v Montpellier W~~2.43 – 0.78

~~Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L1 · W1 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~3 v 7

~~The market · Paris Saint Germain W win~~74% · ours 73%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Paris Saint Germain W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 75%, 73% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paris Saint Germain W win	73%	74%	−1
Draw	17%	17%	0
Montpellier W win	11%	9%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	61%	57%	+4
Both teams to score	48%	42%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	35%	+5
Paris Saint Germain W or draw	89%	91%	−2
Paris Saint Germain W clean sheet	47%	–	–
Montpellier W clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.8%

0123450 4.5 3.3 1 10.0 7.7 3.0 2 11.8 8.9 3.5 3 9.5 7.0 2.8 4 5.8 4.3 5 3.0 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Paris Saint Germain W down, Montpellier W across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 696 Feminine Division 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Feminine Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Paris Saint Germain W at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Montpellier W away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.43 goals for Paris Saint Germain W, 0.78 for Montpellier W. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 19:35. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MON 2–3 PAR · PAR 2–2 MON · PAR 4–1 MON · MON 1–3 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 5 Sept

PARIS SAINT GERMAIN W

WWWWL2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–4

MONTPELLIER W

WLDDD5–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lyon W	5	+28	15
2	Paris FC W	5	+5	12
3	Paris Saint Germain W	5	+3	12
4	Marseille W	5	+2	9
5	Strasbourg W	5	−1	7
6	Le Havre W	5	−5	7
7	Montpellier W	5	+3	6
8	Nantes W	5	−1	5
9	FC Fleury 91 W	5	−6	5
10	Saint-Malo W	5	−6	3
11	Lens W	5	−8	1
12	Toulouse W	5	−14	1