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Home › Football › Feminine Division 1 › Paris Saint Germain W v Lyon W

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Paris Saint Germain W v Lyon W

Paris Saint Germain W
0–4Full time
Lyon W

Feminine Division 1 · SAT 17 OCT · Stade Georges Lefevre

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 23:01
Paris Saint Germain W 0–4 Lyon W LYON W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lyon W win60%
The market said70%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.245
The market’s Brier score0.141

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lyon W win at 60%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Lyon W was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 20–21–59
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Paris Saint Germain W v Lyon W
  4. 4′A goal for Lyon W on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–12–80
  5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Paris Saint Germain W 0–1 Lyon W
  6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Lyon W win: 60% at kick-off, 80% now
  7. 5′We published Lyon W at 60%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 7–13–80
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 6–14–80
  9. 39′We published Lyon W at 60%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  10. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Paris Saint Germain W 0–2 Lyon W
  11. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Lyon W win: 60% at kick-off, 95% now
  12. 40′39′: Marie-Antoinette Katoto on the scoresheet for Lyon W, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Paris Saint Germain W 0–2 Lyon W
  14. 76′Salma Paralluelo scores for Lyon W on 59′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  15. 76′We published Lyon W at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  16. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Paris Saint Germain W · On: Jackie Groenen · Off: Florianne Jourde
  17. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Paris Saint Germain W · On: Jade Le Guilly · Off: IIsabela Chagas
  18. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Paris Saint Germain W · On: O. Szperkowska · Off: Katarzyna Kiedrzynek
  19. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Paulo César · Paris Saint Germain W
  20. 76′⚽ GOAL · 48' Paris Saint Germain W 0–4 Lyon W · Vicki Becho (assist Salma Paralluelo)
  21. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Sakina Karchaoui · Paris Saint Germain W
  22. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Paris Saint Germain W · On: Léa-Laëtitia Morissaint · Off: Marie Estella Lafontaine
  23. 76′⚽ GOAL · 59' Paris Saint Germain W 0–4 Lyon W · Salma Paralluelo (assist Wendie Renard)
  24. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lyon W · On: Ada Hegerberg · Off: Marie-Antoinette Katoto
  25. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lyon W · On: Julie Swierot · Off: Lily Yohannes
  26. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lyon W · On: Korbin Rose Albert · Off: Vicki Becho
  27. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Lyon W · On: Tabitha Chawinga · Off: Salma Paralluelo
  28. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lyon W · On: Ingrid Syrstad Engen · Off: Wendie Renard
  29. 76′SECOND HALF Paris Saint Germain W 0–4 Lyon W
  30. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Lyon W win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
  31. 79′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  32. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Paris Saint Germain W · On: Vitória Yaya · Off: Jennifer Onyi Echegini
  33. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Damaris Egurrola · Lyon W
  34. FTFULL TIME Paris Saint Germain W 0–4 Lyon W
  35. FTParis Saint Germain W 0–4 Lyon W · Lyon W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lyon W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Paris Saint Germain W 20%, draw 21%, Lyon W 60%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Paris Saint Germain W v Lyon WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Paris Saint Germain W win20%
Draw21%
Lyon W win60%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:05

RoundMatchday 5

VenueStade Georges Lefevre

RefereeAlexandra Collin

Line-ups

Paris Saint Germain W

4-1-4-1

Lyon W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paris Saint Germain W

Lyon W

13Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Feminine Division 1

Last match: 3 Oct · Feminine Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Lyon W4+2412
2Paris Saint Germain W4+712

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Paris Saint Germain W

4-1-4-1

1 K. Kiedrzynek

12 Belinha

2 T. Samoura

29 G. Mbock Bathy

20 T. Elimbi

30 E. Østerås

7 S. Karchaoui

11 F. Jourde

6 O. Echegini

18 N. Feller

47 M. Lafontaine

Coach · Paulo César

Substitutes

57 · L. Morissaint

34 · A. Charlier

77 · Olga Carmona

4 · P. Dudek

23 · N. Fatier

8 · Yaya

14 · J. Groenen

28 · J. Le Guilly

16 · O. Szperkowska

Lyon W

4-2-3-1

25 M. Grohs

29 J. Brand

26 Wassa Sangare

3 W. Renard

4 S. Bacha

13 D. Egurrola

20 Lily Yohannes

7 V. Bècho

6 M. Dumornay

77 Salma Paralluelo

9 M. Katoto

Coach · Jonatan Giráldez

Substitutes

11 · T. Chawinga

1 · C. Endler

31 · Liana Joseph

12 · A. Lawrence

8 · K. Albert

14 · A. Hegerberg

24 · Julie Swierot

10 · I. Benyahia

15 · I. Engen

Our number · lyon w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
60% The market70%
Us60%
Market70%

We make Lyon W a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Paris Saint Germain W v Lyon W1.09 – 2.07
Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 4 SeptW4 D0 L0 · W4 D0 L0
Table places · points 12 v 122 v 1
The market · Lyon W win70% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 12 OCT 04:0117 OCT 19:50
Our probability · Lyon W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Paris Saint Germain W win20%11%+9
Draw21%19%+2
Lyon W win60%70%−10
Over 2.5 goals60%51%+9
Both teams to score56%41%+15
Over 1.5 goals81%74%+7
Over 3.5 goals39%32%+7
Paris Saint Germain W or draw40%30%+10
Paris Saint Germain W clean sheet13%––
Lyon W clean sheet35%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.3%
0123450 4.8 9.3 9.2 6.3 3.3 1 4.8 9.2 9.3 6.4 3.4 2 2.5 5.0 5.1 3.5 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Paris Saint Germain W down, Lyon W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.80
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsPAR 0–1 LYO · LYO 6–1 PAR · LYO 3–0 PAR · PAR 0–2 LYO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 4 Sept

PARIS SAINT GERMAIN W

WWWW2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

LYON W

WWWW7–1 · 7–1 · 8–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Lyon W4+2412
2Paris Saint Germain W4+712
3Paris FC W4+19
4Marseille W4+28
5Le Havre W4−56
6Montpellier W4+35
7Strasbourg W4−34
8FC Fleury 91 W4−64
9Saint-Malo W4−43
10Nantes W4−32
11Lens W4−61
12Toulouse W4−101

The competition's standings before kick-off.