Nantes W v Strasbourg W prediction · Feminine Division 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Nantes W 3–2 Strasbourg W NANTES W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nantes W win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.364

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nantes W win at 51%.
2′KICK-OFF Nantes W v Strasbourg W
3′Much as we predicted: Nantes W was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
6′We said Nantes W at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–1 · 26–23–50
6′Strasbourg W find the net on 5′. 0–1. 0–1 · 26–23–50
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Nantes W 0–1 Strasbourg W
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Nantes W win: 51% at kick-off, 26% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Strasbourg W win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Nantes W win 50%)
7′Strasbourg W find the net on 6′. 0–1. 0–1 · 26–23–50
14′We said Nantes W at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–24–52
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Nantes W win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Nantes W 1–1 Strasbourg W
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Nantes W win: 51% at kick-off, 46% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Nantes W win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Strasbourg W win 54%)
27′An own goal by Strasbourg W's Manon Wahl on 26′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 45–30–25
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Nantes W win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Kristin Kogel · Strasbourg W
45′HALF-TIME Nantes W 2–1 Strasbourg W
46′We published Nantes W at 51%. Our model now makes it 77%. 2–1 · 77–17–6
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Nantes W 2–1 Strasbourg W
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Nantes W win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
46′SECOND HALF Nantes W 2–1 Strasbourg W
47′45′: Victoria Krug on the scoresheet for Nantes W, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 77–17–5
47′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 77–17–5
52′9 shots for Strasbourg W, 4 the other way, and they still trail 2–1. 2–1 · 78–17–5
57′We published Nantes W at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–4
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Morgane Martins · Strasbourg W
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Strasbourg W · On: Ana-Maria Crnogorcevic · Off: Megane Hoeltzel
61′Nantes W ahead on 61′ through Adele Connesson. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Nantes W 3–1 Strasbourg W · Adele Connesson
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Nantes W win: 51% at kick-off, 97% now
62′GOAL DISALLOWED · 62' Nantes W
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Nantes W win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
63′We published Nantes W at 51%. Our model now makes it 97%. 3–1 · 97–3–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Nantes W 3–1 Strasbourg W · Adele Connesson
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Nantes W win: 51% at kick-off, 97% now
64′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
66′Laurine Hannequin scores for Strasbourg W on 64′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 82–15–3
66′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 82–15–3
66′⚽ GOAL · 64' Nantes W 3–2 Strasbourg W · Laurine Hannequin (assist Ana-Maria Crnogorcevic)
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Nantes W win: 51% at kick-off, 82% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Nantes W · On: Juliette Mossard · Off: Gabriela Grzybowska
71′We published Nantes W at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 3–2 · 85–14–2
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Grace Kazadi · Strasbourg W
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Strasbourg W · On: Amber Barrett · Off: Grace Kazadi
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Nantes W · On: Esther Buabadi · Off: Imane Saoud
80′We published Nantes W at 51%. Our model now makes it 90%. 3–2 · 90–9–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Nantes W win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Amber Barrett · Strasbourg W
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Tante Diakite · Nantes W
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Strasbourg W · On: Célia Bensalem · Off: Viktoria Pinther
89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Célia Bensalem · Strasbourg W
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Nantes W · On: Liucija Vaitukaityte · Off: Tante Diakite
92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Nantes W · On: N. Potier · Off: Adele Connesson
FTFULL TIME Nantes W 3–2 Strasbourg W
FTNantes W 3–2 Strasbourg W · Nantes W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nantes W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nantes W 51%, draw 24%, Strasbourg W 26%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Nantes W v Strasbourg WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Nantes W win51%

Draw24%

Strasbourg W win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueStade Marcel Saupin

RefereeFournier, Romy

Line-ups

Nantes W

3-5-2

Strasbourg W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nantes W

Strasbourg W

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Feminine Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Strasbourg W	5	−1	7
8	Nantes W	5	−1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nantes W

3-5-2

99 N. Radkiewicz

13 V. Krug

5 Julie Pasquereau

24 M. Vairon

7 I. Saoud

28 M. Roth

51 Tante Diakite

6 G. Grzybowska

27 Juliane Denizot

9 A. Connesson

17 Wu Chengshu

Coach · Nicolas Chabot

Substitutes

42 · E. Buabadi

20 · C. Brackman

26 · M. Kelley

8 · J. Mossard

1 · S. Grøn

11 · N. Potier

10 · Camille Robillard

14 · Liucija Vaitukaityte

15 · Z. van de Ven

Strasbourg W

4-4-2

1 M. Wahl

2 E. Siren

23 M. Haelewyn

3 Grace Kazadi

25 Morgane Martins

27 L. Hannequin

88 L. Declercq

20 M. Hoeltzel

8 K. Kögel

7 V. Pinther

10 N. Wróbel

Coach · V. Nogueira

Our number · nantes w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Nantes W a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nantes W v Strasbourg W~~1.72 – 1.14

~~Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~8 v 5

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nantes W win	51%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Strasbourg W win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Nantes W or draw	74%	–	–
Nantes W clean sheet	33%	–	–
Strasbourg W clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.1 6.7 3.8 1 10.0 11.0 6.2 2.4 2 8.4 9.2 5.2 2.0 3 4.9 5.3 3.0 4 2.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nantes W down, Strasbourg W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 697 Feminine Division 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Feminine Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nantes W at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Strasbourg W away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Nantes W, 1.14 for Strasbourg W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~STR 0–3 NAN · NAN 0–1 STR · NAN 0–0 STR · STR 1–2 NAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 5 Sept

NANTES W

LDLDW0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

STRASBOURG W

WLLDW3–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lyon W	5	+28	15
2	Paris Saint Germain W	6	+4	15
3	Paris FC W	5	+5	12
4	Marseille W	5	+2	9
5	Strasbourg W	5	−1	7
6	Le Havre W	5	−5	7
7	Montpellier W	6	+2	6
8	Nantes W	5	−1	5
9	FC Fleury 91 W	5	−6	5
10	Saint-Malo W	5	−6	3
11	Lens W	5	−8	1
12	Toulouse W	5	−14	1