Montpellier W v Lyon W prediction · Feminine Division 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Montpellier WDrawLyon W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lyon W 90%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lyon W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Montpellier W 3%, draw 7%, Lyon W 90%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Montpellier W v Lyon WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Montpellier W win3%

Draw7%

Lyon W win90%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Montpellier W

Lyon W

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Feminine Division 1

Last match: 24 Oct · Feminine Division 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lyon w winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

90% The market–

Us90%

We make Lyon W a 90% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–3.8, and 0–3 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Montpellier W v Lyon W~~0.63 – 3.84

~~Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 18~~8 v 1

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Montpellier W win	3%	–	–
Draw	7%	–	–
Lyon W win	90%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Montpellier W or draw	10%	–	–
Montpellier W clean sheet	3%	–	–
Lyon W clean sheet	54%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 10.5%

0123450 4.7 8.6 10.5 9.9 7.71 3.1 5.4 6.4 5.9 4.42 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Montpellier W down, Lyon W across0–5 goals a side shown (80.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 700 Feminine Division 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Feminine Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.30 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Montpellier W at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lyon W away: 4.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.63 goals for Montpellier W, 3.84 for Lyon W. Most likely score 0–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.30

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LYO 3–1 MON · MON 1–5 LYO · MON 1–4 LYO · LYO 4–0 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 4 Sept

MONTPELLIER W

WLDDDL5–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

LYON W

WWWWWW7–1 · 7–1 · 8–1 · 5–0 · 4–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lyon W	6	+33	18
2	Paris Saint Germain W	6	+4	15
3	Paris FC W	5	+5	12
4	Marseille W	6	−3	9
5	Nantes W	6	0	8
6	Le Havre W	6	−5	8
7	Strasbourg W	6	−2	7
8	Montpellier W	6	+2	6
9	FC Fleury 91 W	5	−6	5
10	Saint-Malo W	5	−6	3
11	Lens W	6	−8	2
12	Toulouse W	5	−14	1