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Marseille W v FC Fleury 91 W

Marseille W

2–2Full time

FC Fleury 91 W

Feminine Division 1 · SUN 18 OCT · Centre d'entrainement Robert-Louis-Dreyfus

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Marseille W 2–2 FC Fleury 91 W FC FLEURY 91 W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Fleury 91 W win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.854

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Fleury 91 W win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Fleury 91 W was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 29–25–45
1′KICK-OFF Marseille W v FC Fleury 91 W
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Maelle Garbino · Marseille W
45′FC Fleury 91 W have had 10 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 25–39–36
45′HALF-TIME Marseille W 0–0 FC Fleury 91 W
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Marseille W · On: Louise Fleury · Off: Alexis Missimo
46′SECOND HALF Marseille W 0–0 FC Fleury 91 W
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' FC Fleury 91 W win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was FC Fleury 91 W win 35%)
52′We said FC Fleury 91 W at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 24–43–33
54′We published FC Fleury 91 W at 45%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 5–18–77
54′54′: Shana Chossenotte on the scoresheet for FC Fleury 91 W, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–18–77
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Marseille W 0–1 FC Fleury 91 W
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' FC Fleury 91 W win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' FC Fleury 91 W win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 18%)
63′We published FC Fleury 91 W at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FC Fleury 91 W · On: Cindy Caputo · Off: Batcheba Louis
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Anaig Butel · FC Fleury 91 W
73′We published FC Fleury 91 W at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' FC Fleury 91 W win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Fleury 91 W · On: Sanaa Mssoudy · Off: Shana Chossenotte
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Fleury 91 W · On: Laurie Cance · Off: Louna Ribadeira
77′We said FC Fleury 91 W at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 13–70–17
77′FC Fleury 91 W have had 16 attempts to 9 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 13–70–17
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Marseille W · On: Jenny Perret · Off: Habibou Ouédraogo
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Marseille W 1–1 FC Fleury 91 W
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' FC Fleury 91 W win: 45% at kick-off, 17% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 70% (was FC Fleury 91 W win 17%)
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Marseille W · On: Naomie Bamenga Bofenda · Off: Maelle Garbino
78′Marseille W level it on 78′ through Naomie Bamenga Bofenda. 1–1. 1–1 · 12–72–16
78′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 12–72–16
79′Marseille W level it on 77′ through Naomie Bamenga Bofenda. 1–1. 1–1 · 11–74–15
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' FC Fleury 91 W win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
80′We said FC Fleury 91 W at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 11–75–14
82′Cindy Caputo scores for FC Fleury 91 W on 81′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–8–91
82′We published FC Fleury 91 W at 45%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–2 · 0–8–91
82′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–8–91
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Marseille W 1–2 FC Fleury 91 W · Cindy Caputo (penalty)
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' FC Fleury 91 W win: 45% at kick-off, 91% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' FC Fleury 91 W win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 8%)
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Fleury 91 W · On: Lucie Calba · Off: Emelyne Laurent
87′We published FC Fleury 91 W at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' FC Fleury 91 W win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Marseille W · On: Julie Thibaud · Off: Maureen Cosson
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Naomie Bamenga Bofenda · Marseille W
95′We said FC Fleury 91 W at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–2 · 1–97–2
95′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 1–97–2
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Marseille W 2–2 FC Fleury 91 W
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+5' FC Fleury 91 W win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was FC Fleury 91 W win 2%)
FTFULL TIME Marseille W 2–2 FC Fleury 91 W
FTMarseille W 2–2 FC Fleury 91 W · FC Fleury 91 W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Fleury 91 W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marseille W 29%, draw 25%, FC Fleury 91 W 45%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Marseille W v FC Fleury 91 WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Marseille W win29%

Draw25%

FC Fleury 91 W win45%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueCentre d'entrainement Robert-Louis-Dreyfus

Line-ups

Marseille W

4-3-3

FC Fleury 91 W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marseille W

FC Fleury 91 W

15Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Feminine Division 1

Last match: 4 Oct · Feminine Division 1

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Marseille W	4	+2	8
9	FC Fleury 91 W	4	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Marseille W

4-3-3

1 E. Burns

18 Bea

6 C. Baltrip-Reyes

4 M. Cosson

27 Nelly Rodrigues

23 Maelle Garbino

88 S. Elisor

8 L. Missimo

9 M. Bourdieu

20 C. Lavogez

17 Habibou Ouédraogo

Coach · F. Gonçalves

Substitutes

3 · Julie Thibaud

10 · Naomie Bamenga Bofenda

11 · J. Brown

12 · Amandine Beche

7 · L. Fleury

14 · Jenny Perret

30 · M. Sieber

FC Fleury 91 W

4-4-2

1 K. Talaslahti

20 C. Fernandes

4 L. Goetsch

12 C. Meffometou

63 K. Louis

11 Emelyne Laurent

15 C. Blanc

10 Anaig Butel

7 Shana Chossenotte

9 L. Ribadeira

28 B. Louis

Coach · F. Biancalani

Substitutes

6 · C. Hoarau

60 · S. Mssoudy

96 · C. N'Gazi

29 · I. Moussa

19 · Sarah Sundahl

8 · E. Cesarini

18 · C. Caputo

99 · L. Calba

5 · L. Cance

Our number · fc fleury 91 w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make FC Fleury 91 W a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Marseille W v FC Fleury 91 W~~1.19 – 1.55

~~Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 4~~4 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Fleury 91 W win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marseille W win	29%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
FC Fleury 91 W win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Marseille W or draw	55%	–	–
Marseille W clean sheet	22%	–	–
FC Fleury 91 W clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.9 10.1 7.7 4.0 1 7.8 11.7 8.8 4.6 2 4.6 6.9 5.2 2.7 3 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marseille W down, FC Fleury 91 W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 695 Feminine Division 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Feminine Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Marseille W at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). FC Fleury 91 W away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Marseille W, 1.55 for FC Fleury 91 W. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCF 1–1 MAR · MAR 0–2 FCF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 4 Sept

MARSEILLE W

WWDD1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–3

FC FLEURY 91 W

LDWL1–7 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lyon W	5	+28	15
2	Paris FC W	5	+5	12
3	Paris Saint Germain W	5	+3	12
4	Marseille W	4	+2	8
5	Strasbourg W	5	−1	7
6	Le Havre W	5	−5	7
7	Montpellier W	5	+3	6
8	Nantes W	5	−1	5
9	FC Fleury 91 W	4	−6	4
10	Saint-Malo W	5	−6	3
11	Lens W	5	−8	1
12	Toulouse W	5	−14	1