Lyon W v Marseille W prediction · Feminine Division 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:33

Lyon W 5–0 Marseille W LYON W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT4–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lyon W win~~95%

~~The market said~~93%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.004

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.009

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lyon W win at 95%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lyon W 95% before kick-off, 95% now. 0–0 · 95–4–2
1′KICK-OFF Lyon W v Marseille W
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Lyon W 1–0 Marseille W
6′4′: Salma Paralluelo on the scoresheet for Lyon W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 98–1–0
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Bea · Marseille W
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Lyon W 2–0 Marseille W
28′Lyon W ahead on 26′ through Melchie Dumornay. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
30′The goal count is tracking the 5.5 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
31′Melchie Dumornay scores for Lyon W on 31′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Lyon W 3–0 Marseille W · Melchie Dumornay (penalty)
32′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Wassa Sangare · Lyon W
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Lyon W 4–0 Marseille W
42′40′: Ada Hegerberg on the scoresheet for Lyon W, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Lyon W 4–0 Marseille W
46′SECOND HALF Lyon W 4–0 Marseille W
49′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Salma Paralluelo · Lyon W
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Claire Marie Annie Lavogez · Marseille W
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Lyon W · On: Inès Benyahia · Off: Julie Swierot
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Lyon W · On: Selma Bacha · Off: Jule Brand
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Lyon W · On: Wendie Renard · Off: Wassa Sangare
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lyon W · On: Liana Joseph · Off: Tabitha Chawinga
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lyon W · On: Vicki Becho · Off: Salma Paralluelo
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Marseille W · On: Alexis Missimo · Off: Maelle Garbino
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Marseille W · On: Habibou Ouédraogo · Off: Claire Marie Annie Lavogez
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Marseille W · On: Jenny Perret · Off: Naomie Bamenga Bofenda
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Marseille W · On: Nelly Rodrigues · Off: Bea
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Lyon W 5–0 Marseille W
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Marseille W · On: Julie Thibaud · Off: C. Baltrip-Reyes
70′GOAL DISALLOWED · 70' Lyon W
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Lyon W 5–0 Marseille W
73′Lyon W ahead on 71′ through Ada Hegerberg. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Lyon W 5–0 Marseille W
FTLyon W 5–0 Marseille W · Lyon W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 4–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lyon W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lyon W 95%, draw 4%, Marseille W 2%. Over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Lyon W v Marseille WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Lyon W win95%

Draw4%

Marseille W win2%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueGroupama Stadium

RefereeGerbel·Audrey

Line-ups

Lyon W

4-2-3-1

Marseille W

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lyon W

Marseille W

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Feminine Division 1

Last match: 18 Oct · Feminine Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lyon W

4-2-3-1

1 C. Endler

33 Tarciane Karen Dos Santos de Lima

26 Wassa Sangare

15 I. Engen

77 Salma Paralluelo

24 Julie Swierot

8 K. Albert

29 J. Brand

6 M. Dumornay

11 T. Chawinga

14 A. Hegerberg

Coach · Jonatan Giráldez

Substitutes

4 · S. Bacha

10 · I. Benyahia

13 · D. Egurrola

25 · M. Grohs

31 · Liana Joseph

9 · M. Katoto

3 · W. Renard

20 · Lily Yohannes

7 · V. Bècho

Marseille W

4-1-4-1

1 E. Burns

12 Amandine Beche

6 C. Baltrip-Reyes

4 M. Cosson

18 Bea

88 S. Elisor

23 Maelle Garbino

10 Naomie Bamenga Bofenda

20 C. Lavogez

7 L. Fleury

9 M. Bourdieu

Coach · F. Gonçalves

Substitutes

19 · Sintia Cabezas

8 · L. Missimo

32 · S. Magalhaes

17 · Habibou Ouédraogo

14 · Jenny Perret

30 · M. Sieber

3 · Julie Thibaud

11 · J. Brown

27 · Nelly Rodrigues

Our number · lyon w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

95% The market93%

Us95%

~~Market~~93%

We make Lyon W a 95% chance to win. The market has them at 93%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 5.0–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lyon W v Marseille W~~4.97 – 0.56

~~Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W5 D0 L0 · W2 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 9~~1 v 4

~~The market · Lyon W win~~93% · ours 95%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lyon W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 93% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lyon W win	95%	93%	+2
Draw	4%	5%	−1
Marseille W win	2%	2%	0
Over 2.5 goals	89%	85%	+4
Both teams to score	42%	30%	+12
Over 1.5 goals	97%	92%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	77%	71%	+6
Lyon W or draw	98%	98%	0
Lyon W clean sheet	58%	–	–
Marseille W clean sheet	1%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 9.4%

0123450 1 2.5 2 5.5 3.3 3 8.2 4.7 4 9.4 5.2 5 8.9 4.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Lyon W down, Marseille W across0–5 goals a side shown (63.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 697 Feminine Division 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Feminine Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lyon W at home: 5.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Marseille W away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.97 goals for Lyon W, 0.56 for Marseille W. Most likely score 4–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAR 2–6 LYO · LYO 3–1 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 4 Sept

LYON W

WWWWW7–1 · 7–1 · 8–1 · 5–0 · 4–0

MARSEILLE W

WWDDD1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lyon W	5	+28	15
2	Paris Saint Germain W	6	+4	15
3	Paris FC W	5	+5	12
4	Marseille W	5	+2	9
5	Strasbourg W	5	−1	7
6	Le Havre W	5	−5	7
7	Montpellier W	6	+2	6
8	Nantes W	5	−1	5
9	FC Fleury 91 W	5	−6	5
10	Saint-Malo W	5	−6	3
11	Lens W	5	−8	1
12	Toulouse W	5	−14	1