Lens W v Strasbourg W prediction · Feminine Division 1

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Lens W 1–3 Strasbourg W STRASBOURG W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Strasbourg W win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.538

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Strasbourg W win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Strasbourg W 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
1′KICK-OFF Lens W v Strasbourg W
26′Lens W score on 26′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 63–22–15
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Lens W 1–0 Strasbourg W
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Strasbourg W win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Lens W win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Strasbourg W win 15%)
27′We said Strasbourg W at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 63–22–15
29′We said Strasbourg W at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–22–14
29′8 shots for Strasbourg W, 1 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 63–22–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 64–22–14
35′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Clara Bertrand · Lens W
40′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Lens W · On: Sofia Djoubri · Off: Clara Bertrand
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Strasbourg W win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′HALF-TIME Lens W 1–0 Strasbourg W
46′SECOND HALF Lens W 1–0 Strasbourg W
49′We said Strasbourg W at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lens W · On: Ananée Yeboah · Off: Celia Agoune
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lens W · On: Carla Polito · Off: Emma Smaali
67′We said Strasbourg W at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Strasbourg W · On: Megane Hoeltzel · Off: Ana-Maria Crnogorcevic
71′🟥 RED CARD · 69' Julia Evrard · Lens W
72′Lens W are down to ten from 69′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 79–18–3
74′Strasbourg W have had 13 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 81–17–2
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Strasbourg W · On: Amber Barrett · Off: Grace Kazadi
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Lens W 1–1 Strasbourg W
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Strasbourg W win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Lens W win 13%)
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lens W · On: Caroline Devant · Off: N. Gelders
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lens W · On: L. Notel · Off: Morgane Duporge
80′Strasbourg W level it on 79′ through Laurine Hannequin. 1–1. 1–1 · 12–74–13
81′16 shots for Strasbourg W, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 11–76–12
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Strasbourg W win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
85′We said Strasbourg W at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 1–2 · 0–7–93
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Lens W 1–2 Strasbourg W
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Strasbourg W win: 40% at kick-off, 93% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Strasbourg W win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
86′Kristin Kogel scores for Strasbourg W on 85′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–93
86′We said Strasbourg W at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
86′PENALTY CANCELLED · 84' Strasbourg W
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Lens W 1–3 Strasbourg W
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Strasbourg W win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
87′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
87′87′: Natalia Wrobel on the scoresheet for Strasbourg W, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′86′: Natalia Wrobel on the scoresheet for Strasbourg W, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
91′PENALTY CANCELLED · 90' Lens W
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Strasbourg W · On: Élise Bonet · Off: Natalia Wrobel
FTFULL TIME Lens W 1–3 Strasbourg W
FTLens W 1–3 Strasbourg W · Strasbourg W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Strasbourg W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lens W 35%, draw 24%, Strasbourg W 40%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Lens W v Strasbourg WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lens W win35%

Draw24%

Strasbourg W win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueDegouve-Brabant Stadium

RefereeMaïka Vanderstichel

Line-ups

Lens W

5-4-1

Strasbourg W

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lens W

Strasbourg W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Feminine Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Strasbourg W	4	−3	4
11	Lens W	4	−6	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lens W

5-4-1

16 Elisa Launay

7 L. Archier

18 J. Evrard

3 Jennyfer Limage

21 Laureen Oillic

23 F. Rossi

20 Clara Bertrand

22 E. Smaali

29 M. Duporge

10 N. Gelders

9 Celia Agoune

Coach · Sarah M'Barek

Substitutes

8 · S. Djoubri

4 · C. Devant

34 · L. Makowski

24 · Noa Lambrecht

1 · L. Marchal

27 · Yakare Niakate

19 · L. Notel

26 · Carla Polito

6 · A. Yeboah

Strasbourg W

4-3-3

1 M. Wahl

3 Grace Kazadi

23 M. Haelewyn

25 Morgane Martins

2 E. Siren

27 L. Hannequin

88 L. Declercq

8 K. Kögel

11 A. Crnogorčević

7 V. Pinther

10 N. Wróbel

Coach · V. Nogueira

Substitutes

31 · L. Philippe

34 · M. Maenner

20 · M. Hoeltzel

21 · É. Bonet

17 · Célia Bensalem

9 · Amber Barrett

Our number · strasbourg w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Strasbourg W a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lens W v Strasbourg W~~1.39 – 1.52

~~Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 4~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lens W win	35%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Strasbourg W win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Lens W or draw	60%	–	–
Lens W clean sheet	23%	–	–
Strasbourg W clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.8 8.4 6.3 3.2 1 7.8 11.3 8.4 4.3 2 5.3 7.7 5.8 2.9 3 2.5 3.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lens W down, Strasbourg W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 690 Feminine Division 1 matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Feminine Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lens W at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Strasbourg W away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Lens W, 1.52 for Strasbourg W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LEN 0–1 STR · STR 2–2 LEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 5 Sept

LENS W

LLDL0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–4

STRASBOURG W

WLLD3–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lyon W	4	+24	12
2	Paris Saint Germain W	4	+7	12
3	Paris FC W	4	+1	9
4	Marseille W	4	+2	8
5	Le Havre W	4	−5	6
6	Montpellier W	4	+3	5
7	Strasbourg W	4	−3	4
8	FC Fleury 91 W	4	−6	4
9	Saint-Malo W	4	−4	3
10	Nantes W	4	−3	2
11	Lens W	4	−6	1
12	Toulouse W	4	−10	1